Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Öztürk, Tuğba; Saygili-Araci, F. Sibel; Kurnaz, M. Levent

doi:10.3390/atmos12050622

Cited by 14 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…The decrease in SDII and increase in CDD are likely to enhance high evapotranspiration leading to a decline in surface humidity, thereby increasing the drought duration and intensity. This matches the findings of Ozturk et al (2021) that used CMIP5 data to investigate future changes in extreme precipitation over the CORDEX-MENA region. Similarly, the study agrees with the findings of Li et al (2021) that employed CMIP6 models to investigate the projected changes in annual precipitation and extreme events.…”

Section: Projected Extremes Changessupporting

confidence: 86%

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Future changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean and Sahara regions using bias‐corrected CMIP6 models

Babaousmail

Ayugi

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study examines the projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean (MED) and Sahara (SAH) regions based on the multimodel ensemble mean of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate model (GCM) datasets. The study employs robust statistical analyses to investigate future changes during 2015-2100 relative to a baseline period (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014), under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Selected indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change and Detection Indices are used in this study. They include those that represent maximum daily precipitation (RX1day), simple daily precipitation intensity (SDII), heavy precipitation days (R10mm), consecutive dry days (CDD), and consecutive wet days (CWD). Historical and projected daily precipitation is first bias-adjusted using a quantile mapping approach before employing them to compute mean and extreme precipitation changes. The results demonstrate that the bias adjustment largely reduces the biases in the modelled mean and extreme precipitation over MED and SAH regions. Projections show a reduction in mean precipitation over most parts of the study region by the end of the 21st century. The areas encompassing Morocco and Algeria, and the Mediterranean area will experience the highest drying. The projected pattern agrees with the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier" paradigm.The number of consecutive dry days and wet-day intensity are also projected to increase and decrease, respectively. Under SSP5-8.5, significant changes and the largest decrease in SDII attributed to global warming are projected in both regions. The reduction in mean precipitation, coupled with an increase in dry days, is likely to exacerbate the region's droughts and aridity situation and worsen the water scarcity status. Although there are uncertainties in the CMIP simulations, the findings support earlier studies based on varying datasets.

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Section: Projected Extremes Changessupporting

confidence: 86%

“…This matches the findings of Ozturk et al . (2021) that used CMIP5 data to investigate future changes in extreme precipitation over the CORDEX‐MENA region. Similarly, the study agrees with the findings of Li et al .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean and Sahara regions using bias‐corrected CMIP6 models

Babaousmail

Ayugi

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The (Iyakaremye et al, 2021). By the end of the century, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves will highly increase in the MENA region under a business-as-usual pathway scenario, which will affect about half of the MENA population (Lelieveld et al, 2016;Zittis et al, 2021;Ozturk et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting Extreme Temperature Events Using Gaussian Mixture Models

Paçal

Haßler

Weigel

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Extreme temperature events have traditionally been detected assuming a unimodal distribution of temperature data. We found that surface temperature data can be described more accurately with a multimodal rather than a unimodal distribution. Here, we applied Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) to daily near-surface maximum air temperature data from the historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations for 46 land regions defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using the multimodal distribution, we found that temperature extremes, defined based on daily data in the warmest mode of the GMM distributions, are getting more frequent in all regions. Globally, a 10-year extreme temperature event relative to 1980-2010 conditions will occur 15 times more frequently in the future under 3.0C of Global Warming Levels (GWL). The frequency increase can be even higher in tropical regions, such that 10-year extreme temperature events will occur almost twice a week. Additionally, we analysed the change in future temperature distributions under different GWL and found that the hot temperatures are increasing faster than cold temperatures in low latitudes, while the cold temperatures are increasing faster than the hot temperatures in high latitudes. The smallest changes in temperature distribution can be found in tropical regions, where the annual temperature range is small. Our method captures the differences in geographical regions and shows that the frequency of extreme events will be even higher than reported in previous studies.

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“…Studies suggest that climate warming in the MENA follows a differential seasonal response with much stronger warming in summer than in winter (Sillmann et al 2013b;Lelieveld et al 2016). Climate projections indicate that in MENA, heat extremes intensification is very likely to continue throughout the twenty-first century (Zittis et al 2016;El-Samra et al 2018;Legasa et al 2020;Ozturk et al 2021). According to the business-as-usual pathway, by the end of the twentyfirst century about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) will be exposed to excessively high temperatures (up to 56 • C) while extreme heat conditions will likely last for several weeks (Zittis et al 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Air Temperature Extremes and Maximum Heat Conditions Over the Middle-East-North Africa (MENA) Region

et al. 2022

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This study analyzes projected heat extremes over the Middle-East–North Africa (MENA) region until the end of the twenty-first century with a number of temperature indices based on absolute values and thresholds to describe hot conditions. We use model projected daily near-surface air (2-m) temperature ($$T_\mathrm{{max}}$$ T max and $$T_\mathrm{{min}}$$ T min ) to derive the indices for the period 1980–2100. The data were taken from 18 CMIP5 models combining historical (1980–2005) and scenario runs (2006–2100 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 pathways). Results show a domain-wide projected warming for all emission scenarios. Our findings for a business-as-usual pathway indicate excessive warming of more than 8 $$^\circ $$ ∘ C in the northern part of the domain (south Europe) for the annual warmest day (TXx) and night (TNx). In the hottest parts of the domain record high temperatures reached 50 $$^\circ $$ ∘ C in the recent past, which could increase to at least 56 $$^\circ $$ ∘ C by the end of the century, while temperatures over 50 $$^\circ $$ ∘ C are expected to occur in a large part of the MENA region. A significant increase is projected in the number of hot days (TX $$>40^\circ $$ > 40 ∘ C) and nights (TN $$>30 ^\circ $$ > 30 ∘ C) all over the region. For the period of 2071–2100 excessive hot days and nights will become the normal during summer in large parts of the MENA with some locations expected to exceed 180 and 100 days, respectively. Calculations of the corresponding heat index suggest that several areas across the MENA region may reach temperature levels critical for human survival.

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Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Cited by 14 publications

References 85 publications

Future changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean and Sahara regions using bias‐corrected CMIP6 models

Future changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean and Sahara regions using bias‐corrected CMIP6 models

Detecting Extreme Temperature Events Using Gaussian Mixture Models

Projected Air Temperature Extremes and Maximum Heat Conditions Over the Middle-East-North Africa (MENA) Region

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