Projected Air Temperature Extremes and Maximum Heat Conditions Over the Middle-East-North Africa (MENA) Region

Abstract

This study analyzes projected heat extremes over the Middle-East–North Africa (MENA) region until the end of the twenty-first century with a number of temperature indices based on absolute values and thresholds to describe hot conditions. We use model projected daily near-surface air (2-m) temperature ($$T_\mathrm{{max}}$$ T max and $$T_\mathrm{{min}}$$ T min ) to derive the indices for the period 1980–2100. The data were taken from 18 CMIP5 models combining historical (1980–2005) and scenario runs (2006–2100 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 pathways). Results show a domain-wide projected warming for all emission scenarios. Our findings for a business-as-usual pathway indicate excessive warming of more than 8 $$^\circ $$ ∘ C in the northern part of the domain (south Europe) for the annual warmest day (TXx) and night (TNx). In the hottest parts of the domain record high temperatures reached 50 $$^\circ $$ ∘ C in the recent past, which could increase to at least 56 $$^\circ $$ ∘ C by the end of the century, while temperatures over 50 $$^\circ $$ ∘ C are expected to occur in a large part of the MENA region. A significant increase is projected in the number of hot days (TX $$>40^\circ $$ > 40 ∘ C) and nights (TN $$>30 ^\circ $$ > 30 ∘ C) all over the region. For the period of 2071–2100 excessive hot days and nights will become the normal during summer in large parts of the MENA with some locations expected to exceed 180 and 100 days, respectively. Calculations of the corresponding heat index suggest that several areas across the MENA region may reach temperature levels critical for human survival.

Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

“…Widespread adverse impacts on public health, the water-energy-food nexus and other socio-economic sectors are expected (Abel et al, 2019;Ahmadalipour & Moradkhani, 2018;Constantinidou et al, 2016;Drobinski et al, 2020;Dunne et al, 2013;Habib et al, 2010;Lange, 2019;McGeehin & Mirabelli, 2001;Waha et al, 2017;Zachariadis & Hadjinicolaou, 2014). Calculations of the heat index (combined effect of high temperature and humidity) corroborate that several areas across the region may reach temperature levels critical for human survivability (Ntoumos et al, 2022). Mass gathering events in the region, such as the Muslim Pilgrimage or Hajj, may be particularly affected by extreme heat conditions (Kang et al, 2019;Saeed et al, 2021).…”

“…Besides daytime conditions, parts of the region will likely face an increase of more than 60% in the number of tropical nights, augmenting potential adverse effects on societies and ecosystems (Dosio & Fischer, 2018; Lelieveld et al., 2016; Sillmann et al., 2013; Zittis et al., 2016). In some locations in the Middle East and the Gulf region, peak temperatures during extreme future heatwaves could exceed 56°C (Ntoumos et al., 2022; Zittis, Hadjinicolaou, et al., 2021).…”

The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa

“…The occurrence of hot days in tropical Africa has been increasing since the 1980s because of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which continue to alter the region's summer temperatures (Mahlstein et al 2011 ; Harrington et al 2017 ; Herold et al 2017 ; Ntoumos et al 2022 ). Temperatures in tropical Africa are frequently near the upper limit of human comfort (Sherwood and Huber 2010 ).…”

Exposed Population to Hot and Cold Extremes in MENA for Paris Climate Agreement Temperature Goals

“…The review of the existing literature presented in the table revealed limited studies on assessing the impact of extreme temperatures on population exposure. However, because of its fragile ecosystem, acute water shortages, and declining rainfall, the region will be hit considerably harder than other regions of the world by excessive warmth (Majdi et al 2022;Ntoumos et al 2022). It emphasizes assessing the possible shifts in extreme temperature and population exposure to those extremes in the MENA region for better adaptation and mitigation strategies for sustainable development.…”

“…1° × 1°, approximately matching the average resolution of all available GCMs, to eliminate resolutionrelated inconsistencies. Most earlier work evaluated GCM performance and made climate change estimates for various parts of the world using interpolated GCM output with a spatial resolution of 1º × 1º(Xu et al 2021;Hamed et al 2022d;Ntoumos et al 2022). The temperature extremes for each GCM were calculated for the historical and future periods in the MENA region using "climdex" package in R. Twelve temperature extremes proposed by ETCCDI were used in this study, presented in Table2and TableS2in the supplementary materials.Extreme temperature occurrences and the number of people impacted at each grid point are used to characterize population exposure(Jones et al 2015).…”