Unstable work histories and fertility in France

Abstract

Macro-level modeling is still the dominant approach in many demographic applications because of its simplicity. Individual-level models, on the other hand, provide a more comprehensive understanding of observed patterns; however, their estimation using real data has remained a challenge. The approach we introduce in this article attempts to overcome this limitation. Using likelihood-free inference techniques, we show that it is possible to estimate the parameters of a simple but demographically interpretable individual-level model of the reproductive process from a set of aggregate fertility rates. By estimating individual-level quantities from widely available aggregate data, this approach can contribute to a better understanding of reproductive behavior and its driving mechanisms. It also allows for a more direct link between individual-level and population-level processes. We illustrate our approach using data from three natural fertility populations.

Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions

“…Pailhé and Solaz (2012) included the accumulation of unemployment and non-permanent employment periods in the equation predicting fertility timing in France. The most important attempt to measure persistent employment fragilities, and then to connect this measure with fertility, was the study conducted by Ciganda (2015). He proposed a measure that incorporated the information contained in the entire education/employment trajectory of individuals, including the time spent in each state, by applying sequence analysis techniques.…”

“…This requires an emphasis on the accumulation of advantage and disadvantage across the life course (Dannefer 2003). Building on this life-course principle and relying on a series of recent papers (Özcan, Mayer, and Luedicke 2010;Pailhé and Solaz 2012;Ciganda 2015), we posit that the persistence of joblessness in employment career -that is, repeated spells of joblessness over the number of employment spells -represents a crucial marker of economic uncertainty in the context of fertility research. On this backdrop, we developed a Persistent Joblessness Index (hereafter 'PJI') that is derived from the literature on chronic poverty (Mendola, Busetta, and Milito 2011;Mendola and Busetta 2012).…”

The convergence of second-generation immigrants' fertility patterns in France: The role of sociocultural distance between parents' and host country

“…These timedependent variables, computed for each calendar year using the date of leaving education and of first job lasting at least one year, are lagged by one year. Being in education and having a child are not very compatible: the majority of women in France wait until they have completed education and found a stable job before entering motherhood (Pailhé and Solaz 2012;Ciganda 2015).…”

A Long-Term Analysis of Demographic Processes, Socioeconomic ‘Modernization’ and Forest Expansion in a European Country

“…Moreover, demographic dynamics have indirectly influenced this process, polarizing population distribution in high-density and low-density settlements and referring national large areas to marginal economic situations, low accessibility and uneven demographic structures with aging [53]. These areas contribute to the highest rate of forest gain all over the country through processes of natural forest expansion [44,54].…”

“…According with the hypothesis formulated earlier in this study, we investigated the co-evolution of demographic patterns, environmental conditions and the underlying socioeconomic context referring to relevant dimensions of development that are supposed to be sensitive to 'modernization' processes [44,45]: territorial patterns, agricultural development, education levels, job market dynamics, as well as the structure of trade (import and export). Co-evolution of different developmental dimensions was analyzed with an exploratory thinking rationale [38], considering many indicators comparable along a time period of nearly 150 years in Italy.…”