Unprecedented early-summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, 2021-2022

Spady, Blake L.; Skirving, William; Liu, Gang; Cour, Jacqueline L. De La; McDonald, Cathy J.; Manzello, Derek P.

doi:10.12688/f1000research.108724.3

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 24 publications

(24 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The lower growth rates and higher fission rates of larger corals (Dornelas et al, 2017) could be the main driver of coral persistence in marginal reefs (Cant et al, 2022). As ongoing climate change leads to more variable and extreme environmental conditions (Spady et al, 2022), we hypothesise that tropical accreting reefs will increasingly exhibit a population size structure that resembles those now observed at marginal reefs; namely, one with a higher proportion of larger corals. Our research suggests that future reef persistence might be governed by low growth and recruitment, and be reliant on the survival of larger corals (Bak & Meesters, 1999;Cant et al, 2020;Dietzel et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussion (1235)mentioning

confidence: 93%

High-latitude marginal reefs support fewer but bigger corals than their tropical counterparts

Chong

Sommer

Stant

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

AimDespite the awareness that climate change impacts are typically detrimental to tropical coral reefs, the effect of increasing environmental stress and variability on the population size structure of coral species remains poorly understood. This gap in knowledge limits our ability to effectively conserve coral reef ecosystems because size specific dynamics are rarely incorporated. Our aim is to quantify variation in the size structure of coral populations along a tropical-to-subtropical environmental gradient.Location20 coral populations along a latitudinal gradient on the east coast of Australia (∼23°S to 30°S).Time PeriodBetween 2010 and 2018.Major taxa studiedScleractinian corals.MethodsWe apply two methods to quantify the relationship between environmental covariates and coral population size structure along a latitudinal environmental gradient. First, we use linear regression with summary statistics, such as median size as response variables; a method frequently favoured by ecologists. The second method is compositional functional regression, a novel method using entire size-frequency distributions as response variables. We then predict coral population size structure with increasing environmental stress and variability.ResultsCompared to tropical reefs, we find fewer but larger coral colonies in marginal reefs, where environmental conditions are more variable and stressful for corals in the former. Our model predicts that coral populations may become gradually dominated by larger colonies (> 148 cm2) with increasing environmental stress.Main conclusionsWith increasing environmental stress and variability, we can expect shifts in coral population size structure towards more larger colonies. Fewer but bigger corals suggest low survival, slow growth, and poor recruitment. This finding is concerning for the future of coral reefs as it implies populations may have low recovery potential from disturbances. We highlight the importance and usefulness of continuously monitoring changes to population structure over large spatial scales.Data availabilityData is supplied in the supplementary information, or upon request. Once accepted for publication it will be made openly available on Dryad.

show abstract

Section: Discussion (1235)mentioning

confidence: 93%

High-latitude marginal reefs support fewer but bigger corals than their tropical counterparts

Chong

Sommer

Stant

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

New airborne research facility observes sensitivity of cumulus cloud microphysical properties to aerosol regime over the great barrier reef

Hernandez-Jaramillo,

Medcraft,

Braga

et al. 2024

Environ. Sci.: Atmos.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

High‐latitude marginal reefs support fewer but bigger corals than their tropical counterparts

Chong,

Sommer,

Stant

et al. 2023

Ecography

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Anthropogenic impacts are typically detrimental to tropical coral reefs, but the effect of increasing environmental stress and variability on the size structure of coral communities remains poorly understood. This limits our ability to effectively conserve coral reef ecosystems because size specific dynamics are rarely incorporated. Our aim is to quantify variation in the size structure of coral populations across 20 sites along a tropical‐to‐subtropical environmental gradient on the east coast of Australia (~ 23 to 30°S), to determine how size structure changes with a gradient of sea surface temperature, turbidity, productivity and light levels. We use two approaches: 1) linear regression with summary statistics (such as median size) as response variables, a method frequently favoured by ecologists and 2) compositional functional regression, a novel method using entire size–frequency distributions as response variables. We then predict coral population size structure with increasing environmental stress and variability. Together, we find fewer but larger coral colonies in marginal reefs, where conditions are typically more variable and stressful, than in tropical reefs. Our model predicts that coral populations may become gradually dominated by larger colonies (> 148 cm2) with increasing environmental stress. Fewer but bigger corals suggest low survival of smaller corals, slow growth, and/or poor recruitment. This finding is concerning for the future of coral reefs, as it implies that current marginal populations, or future reefs in increasingly stressful environmental conditions may have low recovery potential. We highlight the importance of continuously monitoring changes to population structure over biogeographic scales.

show abstract

Unprecedented early-summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, 2021-2022

Cited by 3 publications

References 24 publications

High-latitude marginal reefs support fewer but bigger corals than their tropical counterparts

High-latitude marginal reefs support fewer but bigger corals than their tropical counterparts

New airborne research facility observes sensitivity of cumulus cloud microphysical properties to aerosol regime over the great barrier reef

High‐latitude marginal reefs support fewer but bigger corals than their tropical counterparts

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About