University Outlook Programs: A Review and Some Suggestions

Abstract

Conducting an outlook program appears to be simple. The aim of outlook is to accurately predict future economic conditions and to rapidly disseminate this information to producers, agribusiness firms and/or consumers, to help them make intelligent production, purchasing and marketing decisions. But those involved know that the appearance of simplicity in conducting an outlook effort is deceiving. Outlook work is frustrating—sometimes gratifying-just as often, humiliating.The focus here is upon outlook programs in agricultural economics department of the land-grant universities. The role of USDA in outlook work is discussed only in the context of its support of state efforts.

Predictive Models for Southern State Cattle Inventories

“…As noted in a recent article by Harris [5], many on farms January 1 by state (early February). The agricultural economics departments in recent years prediction period desired for these models was one have expanded their commitments to providing year.…”

“…As noted in a recent article by Harris [5], many agricultural economics departments in recent years have expanded their commitments to providing market outlook information. Continuing volatile commodity prices will provide an ongoing demand for such information.…”

“…Coincidentally, these models meet some of the criticisms of out-look programs offered by Harris [5]. Development of the models involved extensive use of quantitative techniques, including both ordinary and nonlinear least squares.…”

“…Annual averages are not available until several months Coincidentally, these models meet some of the after the end of the year to which they apply. criticisms of out-look programs offered by Harris [5].…”