Predictive Models for Southern State Cattle Inventories

Abstract

As noted in a recent article by Harris, many agricultural economics departments in recent years have expanded their commitments to providing market outlook information. Continuing volatile commodity prices will provide an ongoing demand for such information.This paper presents results of a study designed to provide short term predictions of the number of cattle and calves on farms, January 1, in each of twelve southern states.1 Such estimates can help outlook personnel in several ways, including providing indications as to how producers are reacting to recent market conditions in each of these states and the region. The models do not require demand estimates for beef, nor are results likely to prove as self-defeating as price predictions might if publicized. Form of the models was suggested by work on an earlier national cattle marketing model.