Universal Epidemic Curve for COVID-19 and Its Usage for Forecasting

Sharma, Aman; Sapkal, Srujan; Verma, Mahendra K.

doi:10.1007/s41403-021-00210-5

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…However, accurate modelling of the second wave will require more data, which is not available at present. We plan to employ universal curve (Sharma et al 2021) and refined epidemiological models (Ranjan 2020b) for improved prediction of the second wave in India. Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of the Second Wave of COVID-19 in India

Ranjan

Sharma

Verma

2021

Preprint

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BackgroundThe second wave of COVID-19 is affecting most of the world. The scenario is very grim in India where the daily count on April 15, 2021 itself is double of the first peak. The epidemic evolution there is quite complex due to regional inhomogeneities. In this paper, we characterize the virus spread in the ongoing second wave in India, as well as study the dynamical evolution of epidemic from the beginning of the pandemic.MethodsVariations in the effective reproduction number (Rt) in India are taken as a quantifiable measure of the virus transmissibility and are compared with those of other countries where the second wave is already over. Further, characteristics of COVID-19 spread are analyzed for Indian states by estimating test positivity and case fatality rates. Finally, forecasts and actionable inputs are provided based on mathematical and epidemiological models.ResultsEffective reproduction number for almost every state in India has value greater than 1 indicating the presence of the second wave. An exponential fit on recent data indicates that the infection rate is much higher than the first wave however the case fatality rate is lower. Preliminary estimates with the SIR model suggest the peak for the second wave to occur in mid-May 2021 with daily count exceeding 0.35 million.ConclusionsThe spread of the second wave is much faster than the first wave. Hence, quick and effective administrative intervention is needed to arrest the rapid growth of the epidemic.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of the Second Wave of COVID-19 in India

Ranjan

Sharma

Verma

2021

Preprint

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“…Sharma et al. ( 2021 ) also noted a similarity in data for several countries over a long period of time. The data of India has been predicted with reasonable fidelity using the present approach.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

“…Sharma et al. ( 2021 ) suggested normalizing the data with the maximum time and maximum infection counts. They pointed out that the epidemic data for the first wave of eight nations normalized in this manner follow a universal curve.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Second Wave of COVID-19 in Different Countries

Bhardwaj

Agrawal

2021

Trans Indian Natl. Acad. Eng.

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We analyse the evolution of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries by using a logistic model. The model uses a regression analysis based on the least-squares fitting. In particular, the growth rate of the infection has been fitted as an exponential increase, as compared to a power law increase, reported previously in logistic models. The data shows that the increase in the exponent of the exponential increase is around 0.03 day , with a standard deviation of 0.01 day . The present results suggest that duration of the peaking of the second wave is almost same for several countries considered. The growth rate is also on the same order of several countries regardless of the total number of infections in a particular country. Since the decay of the growth rate is self-similar to that during the increase in the second wave of several countries, we can predict the end of the second wave in India. The model suggests that the second wave will end in the first week of August 2021, with a growth rate of 0.1% day at that time.

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“…In spite of a large effort to prevent this infectious disease transmission outside of China, the range of effectiveness for novel corona virus has been continuously spread worldwide. Till today, the number of cases of COVID-19 is still increasing rapidly worldwide [ 32 , 33 ]. The vaccines, drugs, and antidote of novel corona virus have not been found yet at its initial stages.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%