Unintended Effects of Autonomous Driving: A Study on Mobility Preferences in the Future

Abstract

Innovations in the mobility industry such as automated and connected cars could significantly reduce congestion and emissions by allowing the traffic to flow more freely and reducing the number of vehicles according to some researchers. However, the effectiveness of these sustainable product and service innovations is often limited by unexpected changes in consumption: some researchers thus hypothesize that the higher comfort and improved quality of time in driverless cars could lead to an increase in demand for driving with autonomous vehicles. So far, there is a lack of empirical evidence supporting either one or other of these hypotheses. To analyze the influence of autonomous driving on mobility behavior and to uncover user preferences, which serve as indicators for future travel mode choices, we conducted an online survey with a paired comparison of current and future travel modes with 302 participants in Germany. The results do not confirm the hypothesis that ownership will become an outdated model in the future. Instead they suggest that private cars, whether conventional or fully automated, will remain the preferred travel mode. At the same time, carsharing will benefit from full automation more than private cars. However, the findings indicate that the growth of carsharing will mainly be at the expense of public transport, showing that more emphasis should be placed in making public transport more attractive if sustainable mobility is to be developed.

Analyzing Urban Residents’ Appraisal of Ridepooling Service Attributes with Conjoint Analysis

“…Based on an agent-based simulation model, Martinez, Correia, and Viegas [11] proved that the introduction of a shared-taxi scheme in the city of Lisbon improved the taxi system performance from the users' perspective in a way such that the average waiting time, total travel time, and fare could be reduced. The obtained results further showed that the taxis may also benefit from an increase in operational efficiency which was measured by the average revenue per travelled kilometer [11].The expected dissemination of autonomous vehicles will most likely contribute to the attractiveness of shared mobility services and the efficacy of those systems [12]. Accordingly, the MEGAFON study showed that a combination of a high-performance tramway and a ridepooling system would ensure public mobility in the city of Stuttgart based on a vehicle fleet that includes 7% of today's number of vehicles [13].…”

“…With the help of intelligent matching algorithms, the routes of passengers who are heading in the same direction are pooled.Ridepooling systems might provide a personalized mobility service on the one hand and ensure the efficiency and sustainability of the transport system on the other hand [8]. Such shared mobility systems might complement public transport [9]; they could also make an important contribution to the improvement of sustainable and livable cities since shared mobility systems might reduce traffic volume and thus decrease CO 2 emissions and the number of parking spaces required [8,[10][11][12][13]. In a simulation study, the International Transport Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revealed that only 2.8% of today's fleet size in the city of Lisbon would be necessary to secure citizens' mobility if shared mobility systems would provide on-demand mobility for citizens [10].…”

“…The expected dissemination of autonomous vehicles will most likely contribute to the attractiveness of shared mobility services and the efficacy of those systems [12]. Accordingly, the MEGAFON study showed that a combination of a high-performance tramway and a ridepooling system would ensure public mobility in the city of Stuttgart based on a vehicle fleet that includes 7% of today's number of vehicles [13].…”

Living Lab as an Ecosystem for Development, Demonstration and Assessment of Autonomous Mobility Solutions

“…In addition, findings indicate that the growth of the sharing model will mainly be in public transport. This shows that for the development of sustainable mobility more emphasis should be placed in making public transport more attractive [19]. Another study in France surveyed 425 participants.…”

“…It is predicted that in 2030, the majority of vehicles will be classified as Level 2 and Level 4 [15].Despite fast technological development, which drives innovation in the field of AV, user acceptance of automated and autonomous mobility solutions will play a significant role in transportation transformation in the future. Several studies investigated different factors influencing user acceptance of AV from different perspectives [2,4,[17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27]. However, only a few studies have assessed the user perception of AV after the real life experiences [25,27].…”