It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO2 removal, estimated at −377 Gt CO2 to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models.

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Detailed background for all transport scenarios and development pathways including all key parameters, and story-lines for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C transport scenario pathways. Mode specific efficiency improvement over time for road-, rail-and aviation transport technologies. Explanations of all vehicle technologies are included in the scenarios, along with the rationale for their selection. Description of key technology parameters for all relevant transport modes such as energy demand per passenger, and per freight tonne. Detailed regional breakdown for developments in regard to transport energy demand for ten world regions and all transport modes are provided. 6.1 Introduction Global transport accounted for 23% of total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions in 2010 and those emissions have increased at a rapid rate in recent decades, reaching 7 Gt in 2010 according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Sims et al. 2014). The reason for this steady increase in emissions is that passenger and freight transport activities are increasing in all world regions, and there is currently no sign that this growth will slow down in the near future. The increasing energy demand in the transport sector has mainly been met by greenhouse gas (GHG)-emitting fossil fuels. Although (battery) electric mobility has recently surged considerably, it has done so from a very low base, which is why, in terms of total numbers, electricity still plays a relatively minor role as an energy carrier in the transport sector. Apart from their impacts on climate, increasing transport levels, especially of cars, trucks, and aeroplanes, also have unwanted side-effects, including accidents, traffic jams, the emission of noise and other pollutants, visual pollution, and the disruption of landscapes by the large-scale build-up of the transport infrastructure.

Results for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios for ten world regions in regard to energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions, final-, primary-, transportand heating demand and the deployment of various supply technologies to meet the demand. Furthermore, the electricity demand and generation scenarios are provided. The key results of a power sector analysis which simulates further electricity supply with high shares of solar-and wind power in one hour steps is provided. The ten world regions are divided into eight sub-regions and the expected development of loads, capacity-factors for various power plant types and storage demands are provided. This chapter contains more than 100 figures and tables. This chapter provides a condensed description of the energy scenario results on a global scale, for each of the ten world regions. The descriptions include a presentation of the calculated energy demands for all sectors (power and heat/fuels for the following sectors: industry, residential and other, and transport) and of supply strategies for all the technologies considered, from 2015 to 2050. The results of the model-based analyses of hourly supply curves and required storage capacities are also discussed based on key indicators. Graphs, tables, and descriptions are provided in a standardized way to facilitate comparisons between scenarios and between regions.

The following section focuses on the main findings in all parts of the research, with priority given to high-level lessons, to avoid the repetition of previous chapters. The key findings as well as the research limitations and further research requirements are given for following topics: Renewable energy potential mapping, Transport scenario and long-term energy scenario development, power sector analysis, employment and mineral resource implications for the 2.0C and 1.5C scenarios and non-energy GHG scenarios, Policy recommendations for the energy sector with a focus on policies for buildings sector decarbonisation, for the transport and industry sector as well as a recommended political framework for power markets are provided.