Unfolding the Turbulent Century: A Reconstruction of China's Historical National Accounts, 1840–1912¹

Abstract

This paper reconstructs China's economic development between 1840 and 1912 with an estimation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides for the first time a time series of GDP (per capita) for the late Qing Dynasty (1644–1911), based on sectoral output and value added, in current as well as in constant prices. The present estimation of per capita GDP in the late Qing period comes out higher than previous estimations, but it still suggests low average levels of Chinese living standards. The economy during the late Qing Empire was characterized by a large and growing agricultural sector and displayed only minor structural changes. Only in the beginning of the twentieth century did the economy start to show signs of growth.

Did Hydro-climatic Extremes, Positive Checks, and Economic Fluctuations Modulate the Epidemics Outbreaks in Late Imperial China?

“…Economic fluctuation data – The ratio of the annual change of GDP deflator derived from Ma and de Jong ( 2019 ) was used to reflect the general price level fluctuations. The deflator was compiled based on wheat and rice prices, the export and import prices of coal, domestic gold prices, raw cotton, raw silk, and tea, covering the economy’s main pillars, such as agriculture, industry, and services.…”

Asia's ‘little divergence’ in the twentieth century: evidence from PPP‐based direct estimates of GDP per capita, 1913–69

“…S1. China's 1913 PPP is the 1912 whole‐economy China–UK PPP from Ma and de Jong, ‘Unfolding’, p. 88, converted with the yen/pound exchange rate; China's 1938 PPP is the 1934–6 consumer expenditure PPP from Fukao et al., ‘Real GDP’, p. 507.…”

“…China: 1913 is 1912 GDP (Ma and de Jong ‘Unfolding’, p. 78); 1938 is 1935 GDP (Minami and Makino, Chugoku , p. 517).…”

“…Bassino, Broadberry, Fukao, Gupta, and Takashima, ‘Japan’; Ma and de Jong, ‘Unfolding’; Broadberry and Gupta, ‘Historical roots’; Broadberry, Custodis, and Gupta, ‘India and the great divergence’.…”

China’s GDP: Some Corrections and the Way Forward

“…Xu et al (2015Xu et al ( , 2017 put GDP per capita in 1850 at 538, also in 1990 dollars. Ma and de Jong (2019) come up with $528 in 1840 and $532 in 1850. The latter's annual estimates show GDP per capita to be essentially flat during the 1840s, so, taking the results of these alternative estimates together, Chinese GDP per capita in 1840 might be set at $535, about 11 percent lower than BGL's figure.…”