Abstract:A Comparison of Expert Forecasts with BVAR Model Forecasts by Sandrine Lardic and Auguste Mpacko-Priso
This paper checks whether economic and financial experts forecast macroeconomic and financial variables «better» than alternative techniques and in particular the Bayesian method. The BVAR methodology, presented in detail in Lardic and Mpacko-Priso (1996) and summarised in this paper, is used to generate six-month and twelve-month forecasts of the Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production Index, Stand… Show more
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