Undocumented migration in response to climate change

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel Miller

doi:10.18063/ijps.2015.01.004

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 68 publications

(97 reference statements)

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“…Such social networks are typically argued to increase the likelihood of migration by reducing the costs and risks associated with this process (Hunter et al 2015). However, other research has shown that strong social networks may also reduce the probability of a climate-related move (Nawrotzki et al 2015b).…”

Section: Perceptions Of Environmental Events and Migration Decisionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceptions of environmental change and migration decisions

2016

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While climate change is projected to increase displacement of people, knowledge on this issue remains limited and fragmented. In his paper we focus on the micro-level and study the effects of individual perceptions of different types of environmental events (i.e., sudden/short-term vs. slow-onset/long-term) on migration decisions. Our results based on newly collected micro-level survey data from Vietnam shows that while slow-onset environmental events, such as droughs, significantly decrease the likelihood of migration, short-term events, such as floods, are positively related to migration, although not in a statistically significant way. When contrasting individual level perceptions with actual climatic events we observe that migrants and non-migrants perceive both long-term as well as sudden-onset environmental events in different ways. While non-migrants are slightly better in judging the actual extremeness of events such as floods and hurricanes, it is the migrants who are slightly better in judging the actual extremeness in the case of droughts.

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Section: Perceptions Of Environmental Events and Migration Decisionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceptions of environmental change and migration decisions

2016

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“…; Nawrotzki et al. ), examining a period (1986–99) that mostly includes the rise and peak of the Great Mexican Emigration Era, paints a mixed picture of the association between climate and migration. Using fine‐grained climate data, Nawrotzki, Riosmena et al.…”

Section: Previous Research and Scholarshipmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Migration at the Height and End of the Great Mexican Emigration Era

Riosmena¹,

Nawrotzki²,

Hunter³

2018

Population & Development Rev

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Previous research has linked increasing climate-change-related variability to Mexico-US migration, but only under particular climatic/social conditions and periods of high irregular migration. Using the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses, we examine this environment-migration nexus across a broader set of socioecological contexts and during periods of both increasing (1995–1999) and declining (2005–2009) migration. Consistent with the notion that climate can “trap” populations in place, we find that frequent/severe bouts of hot or dry conditions are associated with lower US-bound migration from most of rural Mexico. However, we do find higher climate outmigration during episodes hot and dry climate, or out of places with lower vulnerability. Our comparisons across periods suggest that climate migration is affected by conditions in the U.S. in a similar or slightly weaker manner as other forms of migration are. Altogether, our findings suggest that rural Mexico is unlikely to push large numbers of international “climate refugees” and that climate migration is indeed sensitive to conditions in sending and destination areas.

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“…The self‐insurance function of migration is best realised if the household member is sent to an international destination in which the weather and market conditions are uncorrelated to those at home (Massey et al ., ). A number of studies have demonstrated that adverse climatic conditions can indeed increase the risk of international outmigration (Feng & Oppenheimer, ; Gray & Bilsborrow, ; Hunter et al ., ; Barrios Puente et al ., ; Nawrotzki et al ., ). However, these studies predominantly emerge for Latin America, which may be explained, in part, by the unique historical, economic, social, and political context of this region (Kaenzig & Piguet, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway

Nawrotzki

Bakhtsiyarava

2016

Population Space and Place

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Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season.

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Undocumented migration in response to climate change

Cited by 15 publications

References 68 publications

Perceptions of environmental change and migration decisions

Perceptions of environmental change and migration decisions

Climate Migration at the Height and End of the Great Mexican Emigration Era

International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway

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