International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia

doi:10.1002/psp.2033

Cited by 91 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…With a further increase in heat months, this relationship becomes increasingly positive, resulting in higher out-migration under warming conditions. Although our study employs measures of cumulative heat exposure that differ from crude temperature measures or degree days used in agronomic research, this nonlinear relationship can be explained substantively by considering agricultural pathways (Nawrotzki and Bakhtsiyarava 2016; Stark and Bloom 1985). An increase in the number of months with warmer temperatures may initially lead to higher crop yields due to increased plant metabolism and longer growing seasons (Mendelsohn 2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The CRU data are considered the gold standard among modeled and unmodeled climate data sources (Zhang et al 2013). Following Nawrotzki and Bakhtsiyarava (2016), we computed measures of drought and heat months during the 5-years prior to the census (during which migration occurred), plus 1 additional year to allow for a lagged migration response (Nawrotzki and DeWaard 2016). We computed the number of months during the observation period in which the maximum temperature was more than 1 standard deviation (SD) above and precipitation was more than 1 SD below the 30-year (1961-1990) climate normal reference period.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: exploring nonlinearities and thresholds

et al. 2016

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Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961-1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: exploring nonlinearities and thresholds

et al. 2016

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“…Climate effects on migration have been most commonly assumed to occur via an agricultural channel in areas mainly dependent on agriculture [73,82]. In such a context, climate changes have been framed as first affecting agricultural production and then acting on individual and household migration behavior through related effects on livelihoods [65,83].…”

Section: Climate Agriculture and Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

2018

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This paper proposes a selective review of the classical economics-based literature on climate change and migration, focusing on the extent to which agriculture might be considered a key mediating channel linking climate change to migration. Overall, climate change is expected to have large and negative effects on the global economy. These effects are even more evident whenever the economic sector considered is the agricultural one, particularly in developing countries. Hence, migration can be viewed as a specific form of adaptation implemented by individuals and households, enabling them to cope, among other things, with weather-induced risk. We show that the importance of agriculture emerges from both plenty of micro-level country studies and relatively few macro-level analyses using cross-sectional data over longer time periods. Thus, policy actions targeted to sustainable agriculture and rural development can both help tackle the challenges posed by climate change and create opportunities in the face of growing migration issues. However, we also stress that much of the current evidence is based on statistical associations that have nothing to do with causal inferences. This calls for the use of a more structural approach and more sophisticated research designs, enabling the researchers to better discriminate among different mechanisms concurrently at work. In addition, further research should be addressed to the role played by food security, a complex dimension largely missing in the current debates on climate change and migration.

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“…Precipitation and temperature can plausibly affect mobility through a number of pathways or mechanisms, such as damaging housing and other physical infrastructure (De Waard et al, 2016; Fussell & Harris, 2014; Gray & Mueller, 2012b), causing physiological changes that shape household economic outcomes (e.g., lower productivity due to heat stress) (Graff Zivin et al 2015; Hsiang, 2010), and through sector- or economy-wide impacts (Burke et al 2015). Among this set of possible pathways, climate effects on migration have been most commonly hypothesized to occur via an agricultural mechanism in areas relying on subsistence agriculture (Kubik & Maurel, 2016; Nawrotzki & Bakhtsiyarava, 2016). In such a context, climate effects have been framed as first affecting agricultural production and then, through related effects on livelihoods, changing migration behavior (Gray & Mueller, 2012b; Mueller et al, 2014).…”

Section: Climate and Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970–2011

Thiede

Gray

Mueller

2016

Global Environmental Change

130

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We examine the effect of climate variability on human migration in South America. Our analyses draw on over 21 million observations of adults aged 15-40 from 25 censuses conducted in eight South American countries. Addressing limitations associated with methodological diversity among prior studies, we apply a common analytic approach and uniform definitions of migration and climate across all countries. We estimate the effects of climate variability on migration overall and also investigate heterogeneity across sex, age, and socioeconomic groups, across countries, and across historical climate conditions. We also disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination. We find that exposure to monthly temperature shocks has the most consistent effects on migration relative to monthly rainfall shocks and gradual changes in climate over multi-year periods. We also find evidence of heterogeneity across demographic groups and countries. Analyses that disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination suggest that much of the climate-related inter-province migration is directed toward urban areas. Overall, our results underscore the complexity of environment-migration linkages and challenge simplistic narratives that envision a linear and monolithic migratory response to changing climates.

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International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway

Cited by 91 publications

References 67 publications

Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: exploring nonlinearities and thresholds

Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: exploring nonlinearities and thresholds

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970–2011

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