This paper describes the development of a logistic model to predict the probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian rainforest fuels from outdoor experimental measurements. Surface fires spread over litter composed mostly of dead leaves and twigs. There were 72 individual outdoor experiments in eighteen sites. The fire propagated in 49% of the experiments. In each experiment, the litter height, litter temperature, unburned litter mass, wet and dry litter mass, soil temperature, wet and dry soil mass, ambient wind velocity, ambient air temperature, ambient air relative humidity and duration of fire spread were measured. Using these data, the rate of fire spread, litter bulk density, litter and soil moisture content, litter load and litter residue fraction were determined. For the sake of analysis, experimental results were classified into two groups: one for which the fire propagated and the other one for which the fire self-extinguished. Analyses of a logistic regression model showed that the relevant parameters for fire propagation are litter height and litter moisture content. Concerning the probability of successful fire propagation, the model showed a true positive rate of 71% and a true negative rate of 84%. The outdoor experiments also served to gather data to improve the understanding of surface fires and to provide input data for future computer simulations. Keywords Surface fire Á Brazilian rainforest Á Flammability Á Logistic regression model List of symbols A Area of the frame used to determine litter mass, litter height and soil mass for measurement (m 2) AT Ambient air temperature (°C) DLM Dry litter mass (g) DSM Dry soil mass (g) i Auxiliary variable [-] LBD Litter bulk density (kg m-3) LH Litter height (cm) LL Litter load (kg m-2) LMC Litter moisture content [-] LRF Litter residue fraction [-] LT Litter temperature (°C) m Vegetation, soil or residue mass (g) n Number of values of a variable [-] Pr Probability associated with the logistic regression model [-] RH Ambient air relative humidity [-] ROS Rate of spread (cm min-1) SMC Soil moisture content [-] ST Soil temperature (°C) u Standard uncertainty [variable] Communicated by Jarmo Holopainen.