Understanding the variability of heatwave characteristics in southern Africa

Meque, Arlindo; Pinto, Izidine; Maure, Genito; Beleza, António

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100498

Cited by 21 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Consistent with increasing temperatures observed over recent decades (Jury, 2013; van der Walt and Fitchett, 2021a), our results reveal an increase (decrease) in the incidence of daily average, day‐time and night‐time heat (cold) stress across southern Africa, with some of UTCI classes being characterized by statistically significant trends (Figures S1, S5, and S9; Tables 2 and S2). Increasing heat stress occurrences, especially during the day‐time, relate to increasing trends observed for the incidence and intensity of hot ETEs, and together with projections indicating, with high confidence, that southern Africa will experience an increased frequency and intensity of hot ETEs, this suggests an increased risk of additional very strong and extreme heat stress incidences in coming years (Mbokodo et al ., 2020; Engelbrecht and Monteiro, 2021; Iyakaremye et al ., 2021; van der Walt and Fitchett, 2021a; Meque et al ., 2022). Decreasing cold stress occurrences, especially during the night‐time, relate to declines thereof for cold ETEs (van der Walt and Fitchett, 2021b).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our findings provide a baseline for future research regarding human thermal comfort across southern Africa. Given the increasing incidence and intensity of heat extremes across southern Africa (van der Walt and Fitchett, 2021a; Iyakaremye et al ., 2022; Meque et al ., 2022), forthcoming work will assess the degree of thermal stress experienced during southern African heatwaves, and the changes and interannual variation thereof. Such work will also extend to cold waves, given that these will still occur despite warming (van der Walt and Fitchett, 2021b).…”

Section: Conclusion and Future Research Avenuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal characteristics of human thermal comfort across southern Africa: An analysis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index for 1971–2021

Roffe

Walt

Fitchett

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The 6th Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects increasing thermal-associated morbidity and mortality under anthropogenically induced warming. Over 100 indices exist to quantify thermal stress, and among these, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was developed for regional investigations of thermal stress influences on human health. Although by definition a universal index, current applications are mainly limited to Europe. For regions such as Africa, use of the UTCI has been hampered by a lack of available requisite input variables from ground-based meteorological stations. To overcome this, a gridded dataset, derived from ERA5 reanalysis, of UTCI equivalent temperatures was developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Using this dataset for daily average, minimum and maximum UTCI values, we explore spatiotemporal patterns and changes thereof over annual, seasonal, and monthly scales across southern Africa from 1979 to 2021. Across these scales, 9 of 10 UTCI thermal stress categories were observed, ranging from very strong cold stress to extreme heat stress. Spatially, no thermal stress was most widespread for daily mean values, whereas for daily maximum (minimum) values there was a wider heat (cold) stress incidence, with frequent occurrences of moderate and strong heat stress (slight and moderate cold stress). Interannually, a clear El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on thermal stress was evident during summer, with El Niño (La Niña) phases extending (reducing) heat stress incidences by up to 13.8% (2.9%). Over the study period, heat stress increased at statistically significant rates in many instances, with the strongest, most widespread increases, for the daily average and maximum (minimum), during spring (summer), averaging 0.28 and 0.29 CÁdecade −1 (0.23 CÁdecade −1 ); few regions experienced statistically significant decreasing trends. Overall, the trend results highlight regions vulnerable to significant thermal climate changes, and thus should be considered in decision-making regarding outdoor activities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Conclusion and Future Research Avenuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal characteristics of human thermal comfort across southern Africa: An analysis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index for 1971–2021

Roffe

Walt

Fitchett

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The vulnerability to climate change that Angola faces varies regionally depending on the climatic variables, on the topography, and on socio-economic variables. Some regions are already experiencing frequent episodes of extreme weather events of concern such as heatwaves, droughts or floods, as well as coastal degradation (Meque et al 2022, Serrat-Capdevila et al 2022, Trisos et al 2022.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change projections from a multi-model ensemble of CORDEX and CMIPs over Angola

Pinto,

de Perez,

Jaime

et al. 2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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Angola has been characterized as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Climate change compounded by existing poverty, a legacy of conflict and other risk factors, currently impede development and are expected to become worse as climate change impacts increase. In this study we analyse the signal of climate change on temperature and rainfall variables for two time periods, 2020-2040 and 2040-2060. The analysis is based on multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6) and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). Our findings from the observed dataset indicate that the mean annual temperature over Angola has risen by an average of 1.4 C since 1951, with a warming rate of approximately 0.2 [0.14 – 0.25] °C per decade. However, the rainfall pattern appears to be primarily influenced by natural variability. Projections of extreme temperature show an increase with the coldest nights projected to become warmer and the hottest days hotter. Rainfall projections suggest a change in the nature of the rainy season with increases in heavy precipitation events in the future. We investigated how droughts might change in all river basins of Angola, and we found an increased uncertainty about drought in the future. The changes in climate and increased variability demonstrate the need for adaptation measures that focuses on reducing risks in key sectors with a particular focus on adaptation of cities in Angola given a potential increase in mobility towards urban areas.

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“…Furthermore, temperature extremes increase the severity and occurrence of other natural hazards, including droughts, heat waves and forest res (Karl et al 2012;Feller and Vaseva 2014). The consequences of temperature extremes become more hazardous due to the increased exposure of the population to temperature extremes, causing increased heat/cold-related illness, reduced work output and increased human mortality worldwide (Gosling et Recent studies revealed that Asia and Africa would experience higher exposure to heat waves than other continents in the world (Russo et Meque et al 2022). Besides, the world population will be 30 times more exposed by the end of the 21st century, while the African continent will be 118 times more exposed to heat (Liu et al 2017) Several studies reported a continuation of the extreme heat conditions in MENA throughout the 21 st century (Wasimi 2010;Zittis et al 2016;Hamed et al 2022b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exposed Population to Hot and Cold Extremes in MENA for Paris Climate Agreement Temperature Goals

Hamed

Ali

Nashwan

et al. 2023

Preprint

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This study aims to project extreme temperatures and the population exposed to them in the MENA region for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-1.9 and 1-2.6), representative Paris climate agreement goals of 1.5 and 2.0°C temperature rise limits, respectively, for two future periods, near (2020-2059) and far (2060-2099). The daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature of Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to estimate twelve temperature indices, while the population distribution for the historical and future periods was used to estimate the changes in the population exposed to temperature extremes. The results revealed an increase in days with Tmax>45°C (D45Tmax) by 30 and the population exposure to D45Tmax by 20 million person-day by 2099 for SSP1-2.6. In contrast, there will be a decrease in the days with Tmin<0°C (D0Tmin) by 11, which would cause a decrease in the population exposed to it by 36 and 480 million person-days in the far future for both scenarios. The change in temperature extremes would mostly affect the populations in Mauritania, Algeria, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Qatar. For a temperature rise of 2.0 °C, the percentage of the population exposed to the hot extreme will increase between 0.5 and 5.2% by 2059 and between 1.8 and 18.1% by 2099, indicating a significant increase in the population exposed to the hot extreme for only 0.5 °C rising temperature. However, the overall impact will be more in reducing the cold extremes than increasing the hot extreme.

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Understanding the variability of heatwave characteristics in southern Africa

Cited by 21 publications

References 49 publications

Spatiotemporal characteristics of human thermal comfort across southern Africa: An analysis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index for 1971–2021

Spatiotemporal characteristics of human thermal comfort across southern Africa: An analysis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index for 1971–2021

Climate change projections from a multi-model ensemble of CORDEX and CMIPs over Angola

Exposed Population to Hot and Cold Extremes in MENA for Paris Climate Agreement Temperature Goals

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