Climate change projections from a multi-model ensemble of CORDEX and CMIPs over Angola

Abstract

Angola has been characterized as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Climate change compounded by existing poverty, a legacy of conflict and other risk factors, currently impede development and are expected to become worse as climate change impacts increase. In this study we analyse the signal of climate change on temperature and rainfall variables for two time periods, 2020-2040 and 2040-2060. The analysis is based on multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6) and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). Our findings from the observed dataset indicate that the mean annual temperature over Angola has risen by an average of 1.4 C since 1951, with a warming rate of approximately 0.2 [0.14 – 0.25] °C per decade. However, the rainfall pattern appears to be primarily influenced by natural variability. Projections of extreme temperature show an increase with the coldest nights projected to become warmer and the hottest days hotter. Rainfall projections suggest a change in the nature of the rainy season with increases in heavy precipitation events in the future. We investigated how droughts might change in all river basins of Angola, and we found an increased uncertainty about drought in the future. The changes in climate and increased variability demonstrate the need for adaptation measures that focuses on reducing risks in key sectors with a particular focus on adaptation of cities in Angola given a potential increase in mobility towards urban areas.

Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Angola: Systematic Literature Review

“…No article was found that addressed the impact of climate change on agriculture in Angola. One of the relevant publications was on climate change projections from joint multiple models of Regional Experiments Reduction Coordinates (CORDEX) and multi-model sets of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) over Angola [14]. Other publications included climate change scenarios for Angola: an analysis of precipitation and temperature projections using four regional climate models (RCMs) [8], drought history and vegetation response in the Angolan highlands [15], and finally, a report from the World Bank Group on Angola, focusing on the country's climate and development [16].…”

“…These findings underscore the region's exposure to different climate shocks and its vulnerability. Of the five articles identified that address Angola, 80% (4/5) state that according to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN)-an index that illustrates the relative resilience of countries compared to each other-Angola ranks as the 49th most vulnerable country and the 15th least prepared country to deal with the impacts of climate change and other stressors [14,16]. Angola has been characterized as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, more specifically in the south, which suffered periods of drought from 2012 to 2022 and is dependent on rainfed agriculture [15,16].…”

“…From the literature review, six main factors for the impacts of climate change on agriculture were identified: (i) Drought, floods, and food security [2,6,15,18,[22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]; (ii) Temperature increases, changes in precipitation patterns [12,14,18,20,24,25,27,33,34]; (iii) Extreme weather events [7,24,35]; (iv) Occurrence of pests and diseases in plantations [2,6,35]; (v) Water and energy insecurity [2,36].…”

“…The average annual temperature has increased by 1.4 • C since 1951 and is expected to continue to increase. Precipitation trends are more uncertain, but rainfall variability is increasing, with longer dry spells, worse droughts, and also more floods [14,15,33]. In 2002/2003, an estimated 13 million people faced food shortages as a result of severe droughts in Southern Africa [26].…”

“…Climate change projections based on a multi-model ensemble of CORDEX and 4CMIPs over Angola predict an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation for two time periods: 2020-2040 and 2040-2060 [14].…”