Understanding some pitfalls in the strategic foresight processes: The case of the Hungarian Ministry of Defense

Németh, Bence; Dew, Nicholas; Augier, Mie

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2018.06.014

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The use of foresight to create multiple product innovations often requires probing the future. The outcome of the foresight program is a series of policies, programs, products, processes and many other aspects of socioeconomic activity, and networks of collaborators (Ono and Wedemeyer, 1994; Van der Hejden, 2004; Andriopoulos and Gotsi, 2006; Nemeth et al , 2018).…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Complexity model and Mars colonization

Harris

Wonglimpiyarat

2023

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Purpose This paper aims to discuss the complexities and foresight of Mars colonization. There are many pioneers competing in a space race to Mars, for example, Elon Musk – SpaceX, Jeff Bezos – Blue Origin and Richard Branson – Virgin Orbit. The analyses are focused on the aerospace industry – the process of space adventures to Mars. Design/methodology/approach This study offers new methodological approaches – the development of a complexity metric and system innovation mode – to analyze how the complexities relate to the systemic nature of innovation. The complexity metric and system innovation model can be applied in various industries. These analysis tools can help gain insights into the strategies for achieving the diffusion of commercial space. Findings The analyses of findings have shown that, despite various attempts among the pioneers in a space race to colonize Mars (Elon Musk – SpaceX, Jeff Bezos – Blue Origin and Richard Branson – Virgin Orbit, among others), the aerospace industry has not yet reached a stage of commercialization. The commercial space to Mars is of low systemic nature at present. Many companies compete in a space race to develop technologies on a proprietary basis. However, the highest complexity level suggests a multinational and intergovernmental collaboration to achieve economies of scale and economies of scope as well as accelerate the process of technology diffusion – successful commercial space for the interplanetary settlement. Originality/value The main contribution that shows originality and value of this paper is the development of a complexity metric and system innovation model which can be used to explore how the complexities relate to the systemic nature of innovation and how they relate to the strategies in managing technological innovations. The new methodological approaches can be used and applied to various industries.

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Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Complexity model and Mars colonization

Harris

Wonglimpiyarat

2023

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“…Both issue trees and system maps are visual organization tools that identify various aspects of an issue/question and show the relationship between them. Issue trees are systematic modelling tools to quantify different types of uncertainties (Nemeth et al 2018). In this framework, decisions or uncertainties are expressed as branches of a tree that represent user decisions or variations of outcomes, sometimes beyond one's control (e.g., aspects of environmental hazards; Gerstenberger et al 2009).…”

Section: Stakeholder Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Foresight science in conservation: Tools, barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Ednie

Kapoor

Koppel

et al. 2022

Ambio

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Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.

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“…According to Bourgeois and Sette (2017), actionable foresight in agriculture faces the double challenge of including multiple stakeholders, reaching significant impact and these authors focused on foresight impact. Nemeth, Dew and Augier, M. (2018) introduced a strategic Foresight Method that was developed for analysing the strategic foresight process of the Hungarian Ministry of Defense. Allan Andersen and Per Dannemand Andersen (2017) proposed that Foresight can contribute to inclusive development by making innovation systems more inclusive.…”

Section: Review Of Empirical Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Foresight Development Strategy of the Financial Capacity: Comparative Study of the Ukrainian Agricultural Sector

Radchenko

Semenyshena

Sadovska

et al. 2020

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The system of foresight methods is most often used to solve research problems that are distinguished from the continuity of historical chronology. The aim of our study is to search for new approaches to measuring, assessing and forecasting the economic and financial potential of the agricultural sector, in order to develop an adequate public administration strategy. We have set the task to answer what effect this trend will have for the agricultural sector and the economy of Ukraine in the coming years. We used normative-system analysis - an approach that allows to identify measures that stimulate or limit the implementation of a particular scenario for a particular research subject. This method is aimed at formulating policies and foresight strategies, which are implemented by calculating the financial potential of the agricultural industry. The basis of the research was the hypothesis that the financial potential of the macro level should be analyzed according to the current foresight strategy method, which involves (i) identifying the object of forecasting (agrarian sector), (ii) determining the essential conditions (targets that the financial potential for sustainable development should correspond to), (iii) scanning the environment (what resources and types of potential are related to financial), and (v) identifying alternatives and possible future scenarios (building a balance sheet of financial resources). The results of the statistical analysis suggested that the main determinants of the financial potential are: the volumes, structure, and proportions of reproduction. Furthermore, the efficiency and strength of financial potential are compared with the main macroeconomic indicators of rural development. The results revealed that the necessity of state regulation of financial flows connected with the agrarian sector is substantiated by monitoring the process of forming financial flows in a number of key parameters with the aim of observing the equivalence of all management forms to financial resources. This research contributes to the previous literature on Ukraine context, where we proposed ways to improve the quality of financial potential, the conditions for its formation and distribution and redistribution in accordance with the National Concept for the Development of the Agrarian Sector (2015). Additionally, this research will pave the way for the adaptation of foreign experience, including international comparisons of financial flows and state support.

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Understanding some pitfalls in the strategic foresight processes: The case of the Hungarian Ministry of Defense

Cited by 13 publications

References 17 publications

Complexity model and Mars colonization

Complexity model and Mars colonization

Foresight science in conservation: Tools, barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight Development Strategy of the Financial Capacity: Comparative Study of the Ukrainian Agricultural Sector

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