Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models

Abstract

Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.

The combined effects of land‐use legacies and novel fire regimes on bird distributions in the Mediterranean

“…This contrast with the low importance of fire suppression reported by White et al . () for the northern Chihuahuan desert (USA), although an important difference between the two study areas is that our fire regime was not limited by fuel (Pausas & Fernández‐Muñoz, ). It is possible that our modelled suppression efficiency levels were unrealistically high, but the amount of area burnt by wildfires appears to have decreased in Catalonia since the introduction of new fire suppression policies in 1999 (L. Brotons et al ., in prep.).…”

“…An alternative two‐step approach consists of first predicting global change effects on vegetation patterns and then using habitat preferences of the target species to predict distributional changes (e.g. Akçakaya et al ., ; White et al ., ). The first step can be conducted using a landscape simulation model (Keane et al ., ), while for the second step one can develop correlative habitat distribution models or more complex approaches (Gallien et al ., ).…”

“…Here we are interested in climate and human activities as indirect drivers of bird distributional changes, through effects on fire regimes and the resulting vegetation patterns (e.g. Akçakaya et al ., ; White et al ., ). Fire is a disturbance that strongly shapes landscapes in the Mediterranean Basin (Keeley et al ., ).…”

Effects of restoration and fire on habitats and populations of western hummingbirds: A literature review

“…Smith et al (2000) predicted that exotic grass seed production will be enhanced under projected climate change scenarios. White et al (2011) modeled bird occurrence in northern Chihuahuan desert habitats using simulated vegetation changes associated with climate change. The model projected increases in the relative abundance of shrubland birds and decreases in the abundance of bird species associated with grassland, yucca (Yucca spp.…”

Predicting the impact of fire on a vulnerable multi-species community using a dynamic vegetation model

“…For example, vegetation type, climate change, and fire disturbance can be used in a standard species distribution model that describes habitat suitability for multiple focal taxa (White et al, 2011;De Caceres et al, 2013). Models that include the effects of disturbances, such as fire and succession, go beyond traditional species distribution models that estimate habitat suitability based on topographic and climatic conditions (Beltrán et al, 2014;Pompe et al, 2008;Thuiller et al, 2006).…”