The combined effects of land‐use legacies and novel fire regimes on bird distributions in the Mediterranean

Abstract

Aim We investigate first whether fire regimes resulting from the combination of climate change and fire-fighting policy may affect species distributions in Mediterranean landscapes, and second to what extent distributional dynamics may be constrained by the spatial legacy of historical land use.Location Catalonia (north-eastern Spain).Methods We modelled the distributional responses of 64 forest and openhabitat bird species to nine fire-regime scenarios, defined by combining different levels of climate change and fire suppression efficiency. A fire-succession model was used to stochastically simulate land-cover changes between 2000 and 2050 under these scenarios. We used species distribution models to predict habitat suitability and occupancy dynamics under either no dispersal or full dispersal assumptions.Results Under many simulated scenarios, the succession from shrubland to forest dominated over the creation of new low-vegetation areas derived from wildfires. Consequently, open-habitat specialists were the group most affected by losses of suitable habitat. Fire regimes obtained under scenarios including high fire suppression efficiency resulted in a larger number of bird species experiencing reductions in their distribution area.Main conclusions Anthropogenic factors, such as historical land-use change and fire suppression, can drive regional distribution dynamics in directions opposite to those expected from climatic trends. This raises the question of what drivers and interactions should be given priority in the prediction of biodiversity responses to global change at the regional scale.

Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

“…We used the MEDFIRE model to simulate future land cover changes derived from spatial interactions among fire regime, vegetation dynamics and fire management policies De C aceres et al, 2013;Regos et al, 2014). MEDFIRE is based on observed time series to simulate the future effect of primary processes driving vegetation dynamics and fire regime in the landscape (see Appendix S2).…”

“…The future effectiveness of the PAs has been already evaluated under climate change D'Amen et al, 2011;Johnston et al, 2013) and land use change (Pouzols et al, 2014) scenarios at large scales for a variety of species groups, but their interactions at fine scale in dynamic landscapes have not been considered yet. James et al, 2007;De C aceres et al, 2013;Herrando et al, 2014). In this respect, forest management practices and vegetation encroachment in previously abandoned cultivated areas are key driving forces as they may affect natural fire regimes and, in turn, land cover dynamics in the short to medium term (e.g.…”

Rural abandoned landscapes and bird assemblages: winners and losers in the rewilding of a marginal mountain area (NW Spain)

“…Forest bird species appear to benefit from forest maturation and spread, which has offset the potentially negative effects of fires on forest birds in Mediterranean regions (Preiss et al 1997;Moreira et al 2001;Suarez-Seoane et al 2002;Laiolo et al 2004;Sirami et al 2007;Gil-Tena et al 2009). Furthermore, once succession from shrubland to forest dominates over the creation of new low-vegetation areas derived from wildfire, open-habitat species might be the group most affected by losses of suitable habitat (Vallecillo et al 2007;De Cáceres et al 2013).…”

Trade‐offs and synergies between bird conservation and wildfire suppression in the face of global change

“…We used occurrence (presence/absence) data for breeding bird species at two different spatial extents and resolutions, sourced from: (a) the Atlas of European Breeding Birds (EBCC data), which compiles the occurrence of breeding bird species in Europe between the late 1980s and early 1990s in 3,165 grid cells of 50‐km resolution (Hagemeijer & Blair, ) to effectively include the climate niche of the target species by encompassing the widest possible distributional range; and (b) the Catalan Breeding Birds Atlas (CBBA data), which reports information on breeding bird distribution in Catalonia between 1999 and 2002 based on intensive surveys of 3,077 grid cells at 1‐km resolution (Brotons, Herrando, Estrada, Pedrocchi & Martin, ). Among the 214 bird species that breed in Catalonia, we focused on those that are expected to be affected by fire–vegetation dynamics and climate change to illustrate how the combined effect of these drivers can affect the performance of the PAs (De Cáceres, Brotons, Aquilué & Fortin, ; Regos, Clavero, D'Amen, Guisan & Brotons, ). From this initial dataset, species counting less than 30 presences were removed to ensure sufficient information for modelling.…”