Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

Abstract

Aim Global environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios.Location Catalonia, Spain.Methods Potential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network.Main conclusions Such predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000 may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Trade‐offs and synergies between bird conservation and wildfire suppression in the face of global change

“…Overall, we would expect the N2000 network to show good future performance in terms of effectiveness and representativeness given its large coverage in Catalonia (around 33%), as already predicted for the study area (Regos, D'Amen, et al., ). However, in terms of efficiency, better outcomes could be achieved by applying a conservation approach based on spatial prioritization planning that takes into account fire–vegetation dynamics (henceforth “adaptive conservation planning”).…”

“…However, the conservation of suitable conditions for other early successional species such as Ortolan bunting within the PAs was predicted to be only possible under fire management policies that aim to create new open spaces, and more adaptive planning wherein new priority conservation areas would substantially complement the current N2000 network (Figure S10.1 in Supporting Information Appendix ). Therefore, our simulations highlight the need for a more adaptive perspective on the conservation planning process to ensure that mobile species (such as birds) will be adequately protected in the future (Regos, D'Amen, et al., ; Runge, Tulloch, Possingham, Tulloch & Fuller, ).…”

“…In parallel, habitat models were built using the CBBA bird data and land‐cover variables derived from the simulations of the MEDFIRE model at Catalonia level (“Habitat models” in Figure ). Finally, the environmental suitability predicted by both climate and habitat models were included as separate predictors in a final model (as described in Regos, D'Amen, et al., ) to balance the contribution of each type of driver in shaping the predicted distributions of species (“Combined models” in Figure ).…”

A practical guide for combining data to model species distributions

“…, Regos et al. ). Fourth, in a Bayesian context, one data source may be used to derive informed priors for modeling a second data source (1% of articles; Marcantonio et al.…”

Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities

“…A gradient in total burnt area is shown from the business‐as‐usual scenarios, characterized by high levels of fire suppression (‘Stop all fires’), to scenarios characterized by alternative ‘let‐burn’ strategies that aim to reduce the impact of large wildfire (‘let‐burn’ plus). See Table and Regos et al (, ) for a complete description of the scenarios. For all boxplots, lower and upper whiskers encompass the 95% interval, lower and upper hinges indicate first and third quartiles, and the black central line indicates median value.…”