Understanding COVID-19 Dynamics and the Effects of Interventions in the Philippines: A Mathematical Modelling Study

Caldwell, Jamie M.; Lara-Tuprio, Elvira de; Teng, Timothy Robin; Estuar, Regina Justina; Sarmiento, Raymond Francis; Abayawardana, Milinda; Leong, Robert Neil F.; Gray, Richard T.; Wood, James G.; McBryde, Emma S.; Ragonnet, Romain; Trauer, James M.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3754804

Cited by 6 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 7 publications

(8 reference statements)

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“…The impact of the community quarantines imposed by the government are reflected on the reduction parameter δ and transmission rates β and β F . The estimated 20% reduction in transmission for the behavior-changed class compares with a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission in the Philippines which showed that the minimum health standards reduced the probability of transmission per contact by 13 − 27% [41]. As the community quarantine was relaxed from Period 1 to 2, the transmission rate of the disease ( β ) increased from Period 1 to 2, while the rate of behavior change or transmission rate of awareness or fear of COVID-19 ( β F ) decreased from Period 1 to 2.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing bed capacity and timing of interventions: a COVID-19 model considering behavior and underreporting

Mendoza

et al. 2022

Preprint

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When the Philippine government eased the community quarantine restrictions on June 2020, the healthcare system was overwhelmed by the surge in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. In this study, we developed an SEIQR model considering behavior change and unreported cases to examine their impact on the COVID-19 case reports in Metro Manila during the early phase of the pandemic. We found that if behavior was changed one to four weeks earlier, then the cumulative number of cases can be reduced by up to 74% and the peak delayed by up to four weeks. Moreover, a two- or threefold increase in the reporting ratio can decrease the cumulative number of cases by 29% or 47%, respectively, at the end of September 2020. Results of our finding are expected to guide healthcare professionals to mitigate disease spread and minimize socioeconomic burden of strict lockdown policies during the start of an epidemic.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing bed capacity and timing of interventions: a COVID-19 model considering behavior and underreporting

Mendoza

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…It is also a reflection of various personal protective behaviors or compliance to minimum health standards. Literature indicates a range of α = [0.1, 0.6] [5]; however, the original range of α = [0, 1] [8] is used in the experiment.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Parameter Estimation for a Modified SEIR Model of the COVID-19 Dynamics in the Philippines using Genetic Algorithm

Santos

2022

Preprint

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The Philippines has been under a series of different levels of community quarantine and this affected the dynamics of the COVID-19 spread in the country. Predicting the trajectory has been an interest of various research groups. To provide a more efficient method to estimate the parameters of the Age-Stratified, Quarantine-modified SEIR model with Nonlinear Incidence Rates (ASQ-SEIR-NLIR) other than the shooting method, a genetic algorithm approach is explored. By defining constraints for each parameter, the algorithm arrived at an acceptable optimal value for each parameter. The experiment is done on two regions of interest: the Philippines (country-level) and Quezon City, Metro Manila (city-level). The ASQ-SEIR-NLIR model, using the parameters generated by the genetic algorithm, is able to produce an average trajectory compared to the actual data, which may be deemed noisy. The dynamics of the COVID-19 spread between Quezon City and average country level is compared, showing that the city population is being exposed to the virus at a much faster rate than the country average and may have more asymptomatics not getting tested than the country average. Given the average trajectory, the peak daily infection projection is way lower at 0.0823% of the country population for the country projection and 0.1494% of the Quezon City population for the city projection, which is below than previous literature estimates of 3-10%.

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“…The application of a similar modelling framework is described elsewhere ( Caldwell et al, 2021 ) and the full model description (including differential equations) is provided in the Supplementary File, with all code publicly available through https://github.com/monash-emu/AuTuMN/. The model consists of a modified susceptible (S)- exposed (E)- infectious (I)- recovered (R) compartment framework.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustaining effective COVID-19 control in Malaysia through large-scale vaccination

et al. 2021

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Introduction As of 3 rd June 2021, Malaysia is experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. In response, the federal government has implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under a series of Movement Control Orders and, more recently, a vaccination campaign to regain epidemic control. In this study, we assessed the potential for the vaccination campaign to control the epidemic in Malaysia and four high-burden regions of interest, under various public health response scenarios. Methods A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental model was developed that included two sequential incubation and infectious periods, with stratification by clinical state. The model was further stratified by age and incorporated population mobility to capture NPIs and micro-distancing (behaviour changes not captured through population mobility). Emerging variants of concern (VoC) were included as an additional strain competing with the existing wild-type strain. Several scenarios that included different vaccination strategies (i.e. vaccines that reduce disease severity and/or prevent infection, vaccination coverage) and mobility restrictions were implemented. Results The national model and the regional models all fit well to notification data but underestimated ICU occupancy and deaths in recent weeks, which may be attributable to increased severity of VoC or saturation of case detection. However, the true case detection proportion showed wide credible intervals, highlighting incomplete understanding of the true epidemic size. The scenario projections suggested that under current vaccination rates complete relaxation of all NPIs would trigger a major epidemic. The results emphasise the importance of micro-distancing, maintaining mobility restrictions during vaccination roll-out and accelerating the pace of vaccination for future control. Malaysia is particularly susceptible to a major COVID-19 resurgence resulting from its limited population immunity due to the country’s historical success in maintaining control throughout much of 2020.

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Understanding COVID-19 Dynamics and the Effects of Interventions in the Philippines: A Mathematical Modelling Study

Cited by 6 publications

References 7 publications

Managing bed capacity and timing of interventions: a COVID-19 model considering behavior and underreporting

Managing bed capacity and timing of interventions: a COVID-19 model considering behavior and underreporting

Parameter Estimation for a Modified SEIR Model of the COVID-19 Dynamics in the Philippines using Genetic Algorithm

Sustaining effective COVID-19 control in Malaysia through large-scale vaccination

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