Managing bed capacity and timing of interventions: a COVID-19 model considering behavior and underreporting

Abstract

When the Philippine government eased the community quarantine restrictions on June 2020, the healthcare system was overwhelmed by the surge in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. In this study, we developed an SEIQR model considering behavior change and unreported cases to examine their impact on the COVID-19 case reports in Metro Manila during the early phase of the pandemic. We found that if behavior was changed one to four weeks earlier, then the cumulative number of cases can be reduced by up to 74% and the peak delayed by up to four weeks. Moreover, a two- or threefold increase in the reporting ratio can decrease the cumulative number of cases by 29% or 47%, respectively, at the end of September 2020. Results of our finding are expected to guide healthcare professionals to mitigate disease spread and minimize socioeconomic burden of strict lockdown policies during the start of an epidemic.