Understanding and managing new risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Wheeler, Kevin; Jeuland, Marc; Hall, Jim W.; Zagona, Edith; Whittington, Dale

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x

Cited by 111 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…There are numerous studies, which suggest that there is a lack of planning for the filling process of the GERD reservoir, especially the consideration of the negative future implications to Egypt and Sudan [9][10][11]. However, currently, there have been no studies that involve the monitoring of the filling process using satellite remote sensing datasets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries

Kansara

El-Askary

et al. 2021

Remote Sensing

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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the Millennium Dam, has been filling at a fast rate. This project has created issues for the Nile Basin countries of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The filling of GERD has an impact on the Nile Basin hydrology and specifically the water storages (lakes/reservoirs) and flow downstream. In this study, through the analysis of multi-source satellite imagery, we study the filling of the GERD reservoir. The time-series generated using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery displays the number of classified water pixels in the dam from early June 2017 to September 2020, indicating a contrasting trend in August and September 2020 for the upstream/downstream water bodies: upstream of the dam rises steeply, while downstream decreases. Our time-series analysis also shows the average monthly precipitation (derived using IMERG) in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia has received an abnormally high amount of rainfall as well as a high amount of runoff (analyzed using GLDAS output). Simultaneously, the study also demonstrates the drying trend downstream at Lake Nasser in Southern Egypt before December 2020. From our results, we estimate that the volume of water at GERD has already increased by 3.584 billion cubic meters, which accounts for about 5.3% of its planned capacity (67.37 billion cubic meters) from 9 July–30 November 2020. Finally, we observed an increasing trend in GRACE anomalies for GERD, whereas, for the Lake Nasser, we observed a decreasing trend. In addition, our study discusses potential interactions between GERD and the rainfall and resulting flood in Sudan. Our study suggests that attention should be drawn to the connection between the GERD filling and potential drought in the downstream countries during the upcoming dry spells in the Blue Nile River Basin. This study provides an open-source technique using Google Earth Engine (GEE) to monitor the changes in water level during the filling of the GERD reservoir. GEE proves to be a powerful as well as an efficient way of analyzing computationally intensive SAR images.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries

Kansara

El-Askary

et al. 2021

Remote Sensing

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“…17 , 34 , 35 ). An accounting of Sudan’s historical use of the Nile water is beyond the scope of this Egypt centric study but is reported to be 13–16.7 km 3 /year 18 , 19 , 21 . Much of the increased water demand in Egypt has been met by virtual water imports, which reached 40 km 3 in the 2010’s (Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…In the modern record, flows recorded at Aswan and Dongola have been slightly decreasing, as a result of increased withdrawal of natural flows upstream from Sudan's withdrawal of 4 km 3 in 1959 to current withdrawals of 13-16.7 km 3 (refs. [16][17][18][19][20][21].…”

Section: "Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future trends of Egypt’s water consumption and its sources

Nikiel

Eltahir

2021

Nat Commun

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For millennia the Nile supplied Egypt with more water than needed. As the population grew and the economy expanded, demand on water increased accordingly. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis to reconstruct how total demand on water outstripped supply of the Nile water in the late 1970s, starting from a surplus of about 20 km3 per year in the 1960s leading to a deficit of about 40 km3 per year by the late 2010s. The gap is satisfied by import of virtual water. The role of economic growth in driving per capita demand on water is quantified based on detailed analysis of water use by agriculture and other sectors. We develop and test an empirical model of water demand in Egypt that relates demand on water to growth rates in the economy and population. Looking forward, we project that within this decade of the 2020 s, under nominal scenarios of population and economic growth, Egypt is likely to import more virtual water than the water supplied by the Nile, bringing into question the historical characterization of Egypt as “the gift of the Nile”.

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“…Moreover, the operation of the GERD would reduce Egypt's hydropower generation (Wheeler et al, 2016). Depending on how the GERD is operated during multi-year droughts, the dam could result in irrigation water deficits in Egypt (Wheeler, Jeuland, Hall, Zagona, & Whittington, 2020). Negotiations between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the initial filling and long-term operation of the dam are ongoing since 2011.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several previous studies assessed the impacts of the GERD on Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt as a result of changes to water availability for irrigation and hydropower generation (Arjoon, Mohamed, Goor, & Tilmant, 2014;Basheer et al, 2020Digna et al, 2018a;Digna et al, 2018b;Eldardiry & Hossain, 2020;Elsayed, Djordjevic, Savic, Tsoukalas, & Makropoulos, 2020;Kahsay et al, 2019;King & Block, 2014;Liersch, Koch, & Hattermann, 2017;Mulat & Moges, 2014;Siddig, Basheer, & Luckmann, 2021;Wheeler et al, 2016Wheeler et al, , 2020Wheeler et al, 2018a , & Block, 2016). However, no study in the published literature analyzed the long-term impacts of the GERD on the riverine flood hazard along the Blue Nile and the Main Nile.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Cooperative operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reduces Nile riverine floods

Basheer

2021

River Research & Apps

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The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River has triggered much debate between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the dam's effects.Once completed, the GERD will be Africa's largest hydropower plant. This study analyzes the implications of cooperative long-term operation of the GERD for Nile riverine flooding downstream of the dam. A daily river system model of the Eastern Nile is developed and used to examine how cooperative long-term operation of the GERD would affect the occurrence of three flood alarm levels (alert, critical, and flooding) in Sudan downstream of the dam. A reconnaissance-level flood inundation model is developed for the Nile within Khartoum State (Sudan's capital) to assess the GERD's impacts on the flood extent in the state based on simulated flows from the river system model. Assuming the GERD is operated to achieve a 90% power reliability and active upstream-downstream data sharing between Ethiopia and Sudan on the dam's daily outflows, results show that the GERD would reduce the occurrence of the three alarm levels. Based on 34 simulated river flow sequences, the proportion of years with at least one flooding alarm day at Khartoum Gage declined from 37% without the GERD to 11% with the GERD. Seasonal coordination and planning between Ethiopia and Sudan are necessary to mitigate the remaining riverine flood hazard.Although cooperative long-term operation of the GERD could play a positive role in reducing the riverine flood hazard in Sudan, the associated river flow alterations would adversely impact recession agriculture and the environment.

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Understanding and managing new risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Cited by 111 publications

References 56 publications

An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries

An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries

Past and future trends of Egypt’s water consumption and its sources

Cooperative operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reduces Nile riverine floods

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