Uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model 1. Development of a concise stratospheric model

Rundel, R. D.; Butler, D. M.; Stolarski, R. S.

doi:10.1029/jc083ic06p03063

Cited by 35 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The sensitivity of the photochemical-diffusive solutions to the uncertainties in rates has been thoroughly developed by Rundel et al [1978]. The estimated uncertainties are ignored so that it is possible to obtain some sensitive details of the calculated solutions that can be tested experimentally.…”

Section: Jtt = •Actx•xexp [-•Ax•'4 F •N•'z')dz'ch' (3)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The response of stratospheric constituents to a solar eclipse, sunrise, and sunset

Herman¹

1979

J. Geophys. Res.

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The combination of measurements and detailed stratospheric modeling of time‐dependent events can be used to confirm chemical mechanisms and their laboratory rate constants or to deduce additional atmospheric properties such as the temperature structure. Sunset, sunrise, and a solar eclipse are events that are characterized by a relatively strong forcing function of brief duration. For these time scales, the detailed time‐dependent photochemical and vertical diffusion equations can be solved to predict the variations of minor constituents that are physically important and accessible to current measurement techniques. Careful simultaneous solutions of these equations have shown a significant daytime variation of ozone down to altitudes of about 30 km that can affect the interpretation of spectral absorption type experiments. The calculated sunset variations of [NO] and [HO] show a log linear concentration decay for limited time periods that can be readily converted into atmospheric temperatures by using known reaction rates up to about 70‐km altitude. Measurements of the time‐dependent behavior of [NO] and [NO2] during the eclipse of February 26, 1979, are expected to be made from the U2 aircraft at 20‐km altitude. If the measurements have sufficient sensitivity, they can be used along with the model predictions to confirm some laboratory chemical rate constants and to estimate the [ClO]/[ClNO3] ratio at 20‐km altitude.

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Section: Jtt = •Actx•xexp [-•Ax•'4 F •N•'z')dz'ch' (3)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…All other chemical species are independently computed. The eddy diffusivity values are the same as those used by Rundel et al [1978].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The response of stratospheric constituents to a solar eclipse, sunrise, and sunset

Herman¹

1979

J. Geophys. Res.

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“…Still, it is of interest to determine if the magnitude of the observed NO mixing ratios is in general accord with model predictions. For this we used the steady state one-dimensional photochemical model which has evolved from that originally described by Rundel et al [1978]. The most relevant quantity computed here is the nitric oxide mixing ratio implicity averaged over the daylight portion of a 24 hour period.…”

Section: Several Groups Have Reported Stratospheric Nitric Oxidementioning

confidence: 91%

“…The numerical model used for the calculations is a onedimensional, steady state, eddy transport code which includes a detailed treatment of photochemistry between the ground and the user's choice of either 60 or 90 km altitude. The present version has evolved from the original model described by Rundel et al [1978] and now includes both the direct and scattered solar radiation fields, the reaction rate data of WMO/NASA [1982], and an approximate method of including diurnal variations where required. The radiation field is based on the Schumann-Runge band transmission parameterization of Allen and Frederick [1982], the Herzberg continuum cross sections recommended by Frederick and Mentall [1982], and the solar irradiance of WMO/NASA [1982].…”

Section: Overview Of the Photochemistry Transport Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nitric oxide in the upper stratosphere: Measurements and geophysical interpretation

et al. 1983

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A rocket-borne parachute-deployed chemiluminescence instrument has obtained seven new measurements of atmospheric nitric oxide for altitudes between 30 and 50 km at mid-latitudes. These results, when combined with profiles measured by an earlier version of the instrument, cover all four season• and provide a more comprehensive picture of upper stratospheric nitric oxide than has been available previously. At the highest altitudes studied, the vertical gradient in mixing ratio displays positive and negative values during different observations with the largest values tending to appear at the greatest heights in summer. Examination of the differences among the profiles, which exceed a factor of 3 near the stratopause, suggests that they arise from the action of transport processes which carry air into the mid-latitude upper stratosphere from regions of the atmosphere that contain widely different oddnitrogen abundances.

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“…The model used in these calculations is an updated version of the one-dimensional steady state model originally described by Rundel et al ['1978•. Modifications to this model are given in Stolarski and Doubtlass ['1985•.…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The use of atmospheric measurements to constrain model predictions of ozone change from chlorine perturbations

Douglass¹,

Stolarski²

1987

J. Geophys. Res.

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Atmospheric photochemistry models have been used to predict the sensitivity of the ozone layer to various perturbations. These same models also predict concentrations of chemical species in the present day atmosphere which can be compared to observations. Model results for both present day values and sensitivity to perturbation depend upon input data for reaction rates, photodissociation rates, and boundary conditions. This paper develops a method of combining the results of a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis with the existing set of present atmosphere species measurements. The method is used to examine the range of values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine perturbations that is possible within the currently accepted uncertainty ranges for input data. It is found that model runs which predict ozone column losses much greater than 10% as a result of present fluorocarbon fluxes produce concentrations and column amounts in the present atmosphere which are inconsistent with the measurements for ClO, HCl, NO, NO2, and HNO3.

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Uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model 1. Development of a concise stratospheric model

Cited by 35 publications

References 31 publications

The response of stratospheric constituents to a solar eclipse, sunrise, and sunset

The response of stratospheric constituents to a solar eclipse, sunrise, and sunset

Nitric oxide in the upper stratosphere: Measurements and geophysical interpretation

The use of atmospheric measurements to constrain model predictions of ozone change from chlorine perturbations

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