Uncertainty in flow and sediment projections due to future climate scenarios for the 3S Rivers in the Mekong Basin

Shrestha, B.; Cochrane, Thomas A.; Caruso, Brian S.; Arias, Mauricio E.; Piman, Thanapon

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.019

Cited by 86 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…The SWAT (Arnold, Srinivasan, Muttiah, & Williams, ; Srinivasan, Ramanarayanan, Arnold, & Bednarz, ) was used for simulating streamflows and sediment in the 3S basin because it is one of the most widely used catchment modeling tools, applied extensively for a broad range of water quantity and quality problems worldwide (Gassman, Sadeghi, & Srinivasan, ). Apart from its proven ability to simulate streamflows and sediment, SWAT is used by MRC as part of their modeling Toolbox (MRC, ), and the performance of the 3S‐specific application has been well investigated (e.g., Oeurng, Cochrane, Arias, Shrestha, & Piman, ; Shrestha, Cochrane, Caruso, Arias, & Piman, ). The theoretical description of SWAT is provided in the Supplementary Materials.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land use change uncertainty impacts on streamflow and sediment projections in areas undergoing rapid development: A case study in the Mekong Basin

et al. 2017

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Quantitative understanding of potential changes in streamflow and sediment load is complicated by uncertainty related to land use change projections, which is characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of demand (quantity) and location of changes (spatial distribution). We simulate the Sesan, Srepok, and Sekong Rivers (3S), the most important tributaries of the lower Mekong River, with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the implications of conversion of forest to agricultural lands. Multiple land use transitions in the 3S basin are projected using the Land Change Modeler. The uncertainty in land use projection was addressed using an ensemble forecasting approach for 2060, combining (a) three land demand scenarios, (b) two transition potential modeling approaches (i.e., approach to create maps of the likelihood for areas to transition from one land use type to another), and (c) retaining or not protected areas. Land demand leads to the greatest uncertainty in land use change projections. Transition potential modeling approaches do not make much difference in the total change, but can result in spatial variations of change. Retaining protected areas can contribute significantly to uncertainty in land use change projections. Decrease in annual streamflow of the 3S basin varied from 3% to 21%, and changes in annual sediment outflux from the basin ranged from −8% to 249% for simulated scenarios. Land use demand uncertainty results in the highest streamflow and sediment load changes and can thus have major consequences for water and sediment management strategies in areas undergoing rapid development.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land use change uncertainty impacts on streamflow and sediment projections in areas undergoing rapid development: A case study in the Mekong Basin

et al. 2017

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“…The most recent generation of climate models (CMIP5) has made a considerable progress in the representation of the present day precipitation patterns in the Amazon region with respect to the previous generation (Joetzjer et al, 2013). There is, however, a large range of uncertainty in flow projections associated with climate models (Shrestha et al, 2016;Sorribas et al, 2016). Global climate model uncertainty was considered in this study by comparing the outputs of the HadGem to two other ESMs: the IPSL-CM5 and the GISS-E2.…”

Section: Analysis Of the Uncertainty Brought By Different Climate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on River Flows in the Tapajós Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

et al. 2019

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Land conversion and changing climate are expected to significantly alter tropical forest hydrology. We used a land surface model integrated with a river routing scheme to analyze the hydrological alterations expected in the Tapajós River basin, a large portion of the Brazilian Amazon, caused by two environmental drivers: climate and land use. The model was forced with two future climate scenarios (years 2026-2045) from the Earth System Model HadGem2-ES with moderate (+4.5 W/m 2 radiative forcing value in the year 2100 with respect to preindustrial levels) and severe (+8.5 W/m 2 ) representative atmospheric carbon dioxide pathways (Representative Concentration Pathways). We tested the sensitivity of our results to the uncertainty in future climate projections by running simulations with IPSL-CM5 (wettest scenarios) and GISS-E2 (driest scenarios). Human land use effects on vegetation were evaluated using a limited and an extreme deforestation scenario. Our analysis indicates that climate change is predicted to reduce river flows across seasons (up to 20%) and bring a considerable shift in flow seasonality toward a later onset (nearly 1.5 months) and increase in interannual variability. While land use change partially counteracts the climate-driven diminishing trend in river flows, it is expected to contribute to a further increase in interannual and intraannual variability. From a water management perspective, the overall reduction of river flows and their increased variability, combined with the shift and the shortening of the wet season, could potentially affect the productivity of the large hydropower systems planned for the region and the growing demand for agricultural and transport expansion.Plain Language Summary Climate and land use change are expected to heavily modify the water cycle. This is particularly true in tropical areas, where human-driven changes may completely alter river discharge. The Amazon is the largest of the remaining tropical forests. Increasing agriculture and livestock production have significantly altered land cover in the region. This pattern is projected to continue in the coming decades. The change in the Amazon's future is highly uncertain: the direct effects of climate and land use change are not well understood and the response also depends on complex Earth-atmosphere exchanges. We used computer models representing water and energy cycles over time to understand how environmental changes are likely to alter the discharge of the Tapajós River system in southeastern Amazon. By combining two climate and two land use scenarios, we found that climate change is expected to reduce the river flows in the basin, bringing a delay in the flow seasonality and increasing the overall variability. Land use change, conversely, is expected to cause an increase in flow magnitude and variability. Besides the serious environmental consequences, these findings have important implications for the management and development of water in this strategic area for Brazil's energy and food production.

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“…Some of the earliest applications of SWAT in the SEA were for hydrologic analyses of the Mekong River basin [14,39,40]. Analyses of parts or all of the Mekong system with SWAT have continued to the present [41][42][43][44][45] along with increasing numbers of studies that have been performed for specific watersheds located in various SEA countries [46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53]. These SWAT studies have been performed for a wide range of water resource issues, watershed size, and climatic conditions, but there have been no analyses to date of the overall implications of these studies for the SEA region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of SWAT Studies in Southeast Asia: Applications, Challenges and Future Directions

Tan

Gassman

Srinivasan

et al. 2019

Water

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is recognized as one of the top hydrological models applied for addressing hydrologic and environmental issues. This is the first review on the SWAT model studies in Southeast Asia, with an emphasis on its applications, current challenges and future research directions. A total of 126 articles were identified since 2006; roughly 50% of these studies were conducted in Vietnam or Thailand. About 16% of the studies were performed at a transnational scale, which included Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam. Model capability assessment, land use, and climate change assessment are the main SWAT applications that have been reported for the region. Most of the SWAT calibration and validation results for these studies were classified as satisfactory to very good results based on widely recognized performance indicators. However, the parameterization, calibration and validation procedures are not well reported in some articles. Availability of reliable data is one of the main problems that SWAT users are confronted with, as these data are either not freely available or restricted from public access in some countries. Hence, future studies should be considered on identification and development of reliable input data for SWAT modeling. SWAT model modification based on the SEA climate, geographical and land use conditions is another research direction to be considered in the future. Moreover, application of SWAT for extreme events simulation requires more attention in this region.

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Uncertainty in flow and sediment projections due to future climate scenarios for the 3S Rivers in the Mekong Basin

Cited by 86 publications

References 73 publications

Land use change uncertainty impacts on streamflow and sediment projections in areas undergoing rapid development: A case study in the Mekong Basin

Land use change uncertainty impacts on streamflow and sediment projections in areas undergoing rapid development: A case study in the Mekong Basin

Future Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on River Flows in the Tapajós Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

A Review of SWAT Studies in Southeast Asia: Applications, Challenges and Future Directions

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