Uncertainty in determining extreme precipitation thresholds

Liu, Bingjun; Chen, Junfan; Chen, Xiaohong; Lian, Yanqing; Wu, Li

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.09.002

Cited by 30 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…These findings indicates that the fitting accuracy can be greatly affected by the selection of the extreme value distribution functions, goodness-of-fit tests and methods for EPT preset. Liu et al (2013) noted that the fitting accuracy is also affected by the size of rainfall series. So, unavoidably, applications of parametric methods also depend on personal subjectivity and empiricism.…”

Section: Uncertainty In Ep Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…EP events tend to be relatively rare, unpredictable, and often of short duration (Liu et al, 2013), and this uncertainty, combined with varying geographical and meteorological conditions, increases the complexity of EP assessment.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nonparametric methods use fixed critical values or percentiles to define the thresholds for extreme events. Because the corresponding classification of EPTs varies from region to region (e.g., a 50 mm daily precipitation event is considered normal in South China but would be an EP event in the LP), the application of non-parametric methods can require considerable subjectivity (Liu et al, 2013), and significantly affect the results of the analysis. For instance, using an absolute value of 50 mm/d, Xin et al (2009) reported a spatiotemporal decreasing zone of EP in mid-eastern LP while, using the 95% percentile to determine EP, Li et al (2010a) and Li et al (2010b) found an increasing trend of EP frequency in the southeastern LP.…”

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confidence: 99%

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A Universal Multifractal Approach to Assessment of Spatiotemporal Extreme Precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China

Zhang¹,

Gupta²,

Gao³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Extreme precipitation (EP) is a major external agent driving various natural hazards in the Loess Plateau (LP), China. Yet, the characteristics of spatiotemporal EP responsible for such hazardous situations remain poorly understood. We integrate universal multifractals with a segmentation algorithm to characterize a physically meaningful threshold for EP (EPT). Using daily data from 1961 to 2015, we investigate the spatiotemporal variation of EP over the LP. Our results indicate that EPTs range from 17.3 to 50.3 mm/d while the mean annual EP increases from 35 to 138 mm from northwest to southeast LP. Further, EP frequency (EPF) has historically spatially varied from 54–116 days, with the highest EPF occurring in the mid-southern and southeastern LP where precipitation is much more abundant. However, EP intensities tend to be strongest in the central LP where precipitation also tends to be scare, and get progressively weaker as we move towards the margins (similarly with EP severity). An examination of atmosphere circulation patterns indicates that the central LP is the boundary where tropical cyclones reach furthest into inland China, resulting in the highest EP intensities and EP severities being in this area. Under the control of the East Asian monsoon, precipitation from June to September accounts for 72 % of the total amount, while 91 % of the total EP events are concentrated in June to August. Further, EP events occur, on average, 11 days earlier than the wettest part of the season. These phenomena are responsible for the most serious natural hazards in the LP, especially in the Central region. Spatiotemporally, 91.4 % of the LP has experienced a downward trend of precipitation, while 62.1 % of the area has experienced upward trends of the EP indices, indicating the potential risk of more serious hazardous situations.

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Section: Uncertainty In Ep Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Universal Multifractal Approach to Assessment of Spatiotemporal Extreme Precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China

Zhang¹,

Gupta²,

Gao³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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show abstract

“…The annual average in precipitation, wind speed, temperature and relative humidity are 1346 mm, 1.8 m/s, 18.9 °C, and 77%, respectively. Spatially, the annual average precipitation decreases from coastal areas in the east to mountainous areas in the west [39]. In season, the precipitation of winter gets wetter and summer gets drier.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation and Study on Chaotic Characteristics in the Xijiang River Basin, China

Ding

Liao

Wang

et al. 2019

Water

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Climate change leads to the increase of frequency and intensity for extreme precipitation events, potentially threatening the development of our society. It is of great significance to study the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation for understanding cycle process of water and its response to global warming. This paper selects the Xijiang River basin, which locates on a low latitude and coastland, as the research area. The spatiotemporal distribution and homogeneity of precipitation are analyzed, and the spatial trend is studied using 12 extreme precipitation indices. Finally, chaotic characteristics are evaluated for daily precipitation. The results showed that the precipitation in the basin tended to be unevenly distributed. On wet days, precipitation in the middle and the west was more and more uniform. The proportion of tiny rain was the largest, between 33.5% and 41.3%. The proportion of violent rain was the smallest, between 0.1% and 4.7%. Duan had the highest frequency for violent rain, and the probability of disasters caused by extreme precipitation near the station was the highest. The simple daily intensity index (SDII) showed a significant increase in the middle and the northeast. PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation) showed a decreasing trend in the northwest. The average rates of variation for R95PTOT (precipitation on very wet days) and R99PTOT (precipitation on extremely wet days) were −0.01 mm/year and 0.06 mm/year, respectively. There might be a risk of drought on the west of the basin in the future. Precipitation in other locations was still relatively abundant. Daily precipitation showed high dimension and high chaotic characteristics. The MED (minimum embedding dimension) was between 11 and 30, and the MLE (largest Lyapunov exponent) was between 0.037 and 0.144.

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“…In EP assessment using historical daily data, it is a crucial step to identify EP events by extreme precipitation threshold (EPT) determination. However, EP events tend to be relatively rare, unpredictable, and often short-lived (Liu et al, 2013); this uncertainty, combined with varying geographical and meteorological conditions, increases the complexity of EP assessment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China

Zhang

Gao

et al. 2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Extreme precipitation (EP) is a major external agent driving various natural hazards in the Loess Plateau (LP), China. However, the characteristics of the spatiotemporal EP responsible for such hazardous situations remain poorly understood. We integrate universal multifractals with a segmentation algorithm to characterize a physically meaningful threshold for EP (EPT). Using daily data from 1961 to 2015, we investigate the spatiotemporal variation of EP over the LP. Our results indicate that (with precipitation increasing) EPTs range from 17.3 to 50.3 mm d−1, while the mean annual EP increases from 35 to 138 mm from the northwestern to the southeastern LP. Further, historically, the EP frequency (EPF) has spatially varied from 54 to 116 d, with the highest EPF occurring in the mid-southern and southeastern LP where precipitation is much more abundant. However, EP intensities tend to be strongest in the central LP, where precipitation also tends to be scarce, and get progressively weaker as we move towards the margins (similarly to EP severity). An examination of atmospheric circulation patterns indicates that the central LP is the inland boundary with respect to the reach and impact of tropical cyclones in China, resulting in the highest EP intensities and EP severities being observed in this area. Under the control of the East Asian monsoon, precipitation from June to September accounts for 72 % of the total amount, and 91 % of the total EP events are concentrated between June and August. Further, EP events occur, on average, 11 d earlier than the wettest part of the season. These phenomena are responsible for the most serious natural hazards in the LP, especially in the central LP region. Spatiotemporally, 91.4 % of the LP has experienced a downward trend in precipitation, whereas 62.1 % of the area has experienced upward trends in the EP indices, indicating the potential risk of more serious hazardous situations. The universal multifractal approach considers the physical processes and probability distribution of precipitation, thereby providing a formal framework for spatiotemporal EP assessment at the regional scale.

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Uncertainty in determining extreme precipitation thresholds

Cited by 30 publications

References 27 publications

A Universal Multifractal Approach to Assessment of Spatiotemporal Extreme Precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China

A Universal Multifractal Approach to Assessment of Spatiotemporal Extreme Precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China

Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation and Study on Chaotic Characteristics in the Xijiang River Basin, China

A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China

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