Uncertainty, Climate Change, and Adaptive Management

Peterson, Garry D.; Leo, Giulio A. De; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Janssen, Marco A.; Kinzig, Ann P.; Malcolm, Jay R.; O’Brien, Karen; Pope, Shealagh E.; Rothman, Dale S.; Shevliakova, Elena; Tinch, Rob

doi:10.5751/es-00024-010204

Cited by 44 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(17 reference statements)

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“…With active participation in CCP, cities are stimulated to 2 Urban Studies Research apply adaptive management through an ongoing process of learning, monitoring and assessment of progress, sharing of lessons learned, identifying gaps in knowledge, and facilitating community involvement. However, success in building community resilience to climate change will require cultural transformations as well, since the implementation of adaptive management faces significant barriers born of inertia, and the most difficult of such barriers to overcome are often social rather than technical in character [5]. Through a variety of initiatives ICLEI has been contributing to substantial transformation in urban settings in many areas of the world [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Resilience to Climate Change in US Cities

Saavedra

Budd

Lovrich

2012

Urban Studies Research

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In the face of uncertainties associated with climate change, building adaptive capacity and resilience at the community level emerges as an essential and timely element of local planning. However, key social factors that facilitate the effective building and maintenance of urban resilience are poorly understood. Two groups of US cities differing markedly in their commitment to climate change are contrasted with respect to their planning approaches and actions related to mitigation and adaptation strategies, and also in relation to social features that are believed to enhance adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change. The first group manifests a strong commitment to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and the second group has demonstrated little or no such commitment. These cities are compared with respect to several noteworthy social features, including level of social capital, degree of unconventional thought, and level of cultural diversity. These characteristics are postulated to contribute to the adaptive capacity of communities for dealing with the impacts of climate change. The aim is to determine to what extent there is a relationship between social/cultural structures and urban commitment and planning for climate change that could discriminate between climate change resilient and nonresilient urban areas.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Resilience to Climate Change in US Cities

Saavedra

Budd

Lovrich

2012

Urban Studies Research

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“…Further it reinforces the role of active adaptive management in distinguishing among competing ideas about how an ecological system functions and how best to manage it. Active adaptive management has been hailed as the way forward for effective conservation management, and indeed for managing our environment in a changing world (Peterson et al 1997). We hope this work will contribute to wider adoption of the useful but difficult concept of active adaptive management.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Uncertainty about how ecological systems function makes management decisions difficult (Peterson et al 1997, Drechsler et al 1998, Shea and Possingham 2000, Regan et al 2003. Managers must often address multiple competing hypotheses about how the system they are trying to manage actually functions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Active adaptive conservation of threatened species in the face of uncertainty

McDonald‐Madden

Probert

Hauser

et al. 2010

Ecological Applications

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Abstract. Adaptive management has a long history in the natural resource management literature, but despite this, few practitioners have developed adaptive strategies to conserve threatened species. Active adaptive management provides a framework for valuing learning by measuring the degree to which it improves long-run management outcomes. The challenge of an active adaptive approach is to find the correct balance between gaining knowledge to improve management in the future and achieving the best short-term outcome based on current knowledge. We develop and analyze a framework for active adaptive management of a threatened species. Our case study concerns a novel facial tumor disease affecting the Australian threatened species Sarcophilus harrisii: the Tasmanian devil. We use stochastic dynamic programming with Bayesian updating to identify the management strategy that maximizes the Tasmanian devil population growth rate, taking into account improvements to management through learning to better understand disease latency and the relative effectiveness of three competing management options. Exactly which management action we choose each year is driven by the credibility of competing hypotheses about disease latency and by the population growth rate predicted by each hypothesis under the competing management actions. We discover that the optimal combination of management actions depends on the number of sites available and the time remaining to implement management. Our approach to active adaptive management provides a framework to identify the optimal amount of effort to invest in learning to achieve long-run conservation objectives.

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“…This does not mean that the system was in equilibrium. It changed continuously and there was a high level of model uncertainty (Peterson et al, 1997), i.e., many of the connections between forms of land use, climate, locust population developments, locust control measures and so on were uncertain. But for quite some time there was a substantial capacity for learning and adapting control strategies to ecosystem dynamics, which made the locust control system quite resilient (Walker et al, 2002).…”

Section: Lessons To Be Learned From Locust Control In Kazakhstanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward Sustainable Pest Control: Back to the Future in Case of Kazakhstan

Toleubayev¹

2012

New Perspectives in Plant Protection

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Uncertainty, Climate Change, and Adaptive Management

Cited by 44 publications

References 14 publications

Assessing Resilience to Climate Change in US Cities

Assessing Resilience to Climate Change in US Cities

Active adaptive conservation of threatened species in the face of uncertainty

Toward Sustainable Pest Control: Back to the Future in Case of Kazakhstan

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