Uncertainty and Technological Change

Rosenberg, Nathan

doi:10.1016/b978-0-7506-7009-8.50004-5

Cited by 92 publications

(110 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…The name laser, an acronym derived from "light amplification by stimulated emission of radiation, describes how a laser beam is produced. A product of fundamental scientific research, the underlying science was worked out by Einstein in a paper produced in 1916 (Rosenberg, 1996) but the invention of the laser is attributed to Charles H. Townes, who shared a Nobel prize for his pioneering work on the laser in the early 1950s. The first working laser was constructed in 1960 by Theodore Maiman, since which time the laser has been exapted into a wide range of applications.…”

Section: The Lasermentioning

confidence: 99%

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The economic implications of exaptation

Dew

Sarasvathy

Venkataraman

2004

Journal of Evolutionary Economics

169

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Abstract. Accounts of economic change recognize that markets create selective pressures for the adaptation of technologies in the direction of customer needs and production efficiencies. However, non-adaptational bases for technological change are rarely highlighted, despite their pervasiveness in the history of technical and economic change. In this paper the concept of exaptation -a feature co-opted for its present role from some other origin -is proposed as a characteristic element of technological change, and an important mechanism by which new markets for products and services are created by entrepreneurs. Exaptation is a missing but central concept linking the evolution of technology with the entrepreneurial creation of new markets and the concept of Knightian uncertainty.

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Section: The Lasermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Without using the term "exaptation", Rosenberg (1996) recounts how the laser has been co-opted for numerous new roles. The name laser, an acronym derived from "light amplification by stimulated emission of radiation, describes how a laser beam is produced.…”

Section: The Lasermentioning

confidence: 99%

The economic implications of exaptation

Dew

Sarasvathy

Venkataraman

2004

Journal of Evolutionary Economics

169

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“…There exist many causes of uncertainty in technological change besides purely technological sources, including the adoption and diffusion of new technologies, market and customer acceptance, and competitors' strategic actions (Rosenberg 1996). Arguments for intentional conflation of these sources notwithstanding (Ruttan 1959), our confusion could be reduced by returning to the classic differentiation between technological invention and commercial innovation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While many have acknowledged the pervasive uncertainty of technological change (Rosenberg 1996), the ultimate sources of that uncertainty remain poorly understood. Many scholars in the product life-cycle tradition have observed that uncertainty peaks early and decreases following convergence on a dominant design Tushman 1990, Klepper 1997).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recombinant Uncertainty in Technological Search

2001

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W hile the course of technological change is widely accepted to be highly uncertain and unpredictable, little work has identified or studied the ultimate sources and causes of that uncertainty. This paper proposes that purely technological uncertainty derives from inventors' search processes with unfamiliar components and component combinations. Experimentation with new components and new combinations leads to less useful inventions on average, but it also implies an increase in the variability that can result in both failure and breakthrough. Negative binomial count and dispersion models with patent citation data demonstrate that new combinations are indeed more variable. In contrast to predictions, however, the reuse of components has a nonmonotonic and eventually positive effect on variability.

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“…As forcefully argued by Nathan Rosenberg, genuine innovations are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty because of 'the inability to anticipate the future impact of successful innovations, even after their technical feasibility has been established'. 19 Radical uncertainty may also be brought about by an insufficient level of information processing ability in relation to the degree of complexity of the situation at hand (procedural uncertainty). This type of uncertainty is due to misperception, to difficulties in acquiring potentially available knowledge in a context of asymmetric knowledge, an inability to take into account some event or possible outcomes that are nevertheless known, or incapacity to compute, order or assess phenomena.…”

Section: Intense Interaction Among the Three Aspects Of The Organizatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Complementarities among Capability, Transaction and Scale-Scope Considerations in Determining Organizational Boundaries1

Morroni

2007

Technology Analysis & Strategic Management

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The purpose of this paper is to discuss the conditions under which capability, transaction and scale considerations interact in determining organizational boundaries. It is argued that this interaction contributes to explaining the individual firm's performance and growth whenever cognitive competence is limited, radical uncertainty is present, some inputs and processes are indivisible and complementary, and some relevant knowledge is tacit, nontransmittable and characterized by set-up processes with high fixed costs. Under the above conditions, which are becoming increasingly important with the spread of the knowledge-based economy, the growth of the firm can be regarded as a consequence of managerial ability to set a strategy that exploits the mutually reinforcing advantages provided by the organizational coordination of capabilities, transactions and scale of processes, while limiting counteracting forces deriving from errors of strategy that are due to cognitive inertia and myopia, unclear allocation of rights and responsibilities, errors in identifying aims, imprecision in performance measuring, difficulty in focusing incentives, influence activities and problems of internal communication.

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Uncertainty and Technological Change

Cited by 92 publications

References 7 publications

The economic implications of exaptation

The economic implications of exaptation

Recombinant Uncertainty in Technological Search

Complementarities among Capability, Transaction and Scale-Scope Considerations in Determining Organizational Boundaries1

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