Recombinant Uncertainty in Technological Search

Abstract

W hile the course of technological change is widely accepted to be highly uncertain and unpredictable, little work has identified or studied the ultimate sources and causes of that uncertainty. This paper proposes that purely technological uncertainty derives from inventors' search processes with unfamiliar components and component combinations. Experimentation with new components and new combinations leads to less useful inventions on average, but it also implies an increase in the variability that can result in both failure and breakthrough. Negative binomial count and dispersion models with patent citation data demonstrate that new combinations are indeed more variable. In contrast to predictions, however, the reuse of components has a nonmonotonic and eventually positive effect on variability.

Combining Ideas in Crowdsourced Idea Generation

“…This is consistent with the view that idea combination tends to benefit novelty but not usefulness (Fleming, 2001). In fact, Fleming (2001) argues that novel combination leads to poorer usefulness on average, even though it creases the variability in usefulness. However, in our study, idea combination did not reduce average idea usefulness: this is probably because the combined ideas have elements from highly useful idea examples.…”

“…First, two randomly selected ideas might not be compatible to be combined. Second, a combined idea is not necessarily a better idea (Chan and Schunn, 2015;Fleming, 2001). To address these two issues, this study 204 Kai Wang, Hui Wang, Yu Tao designs a novel idea combination approach to generate high-quality, creative ideas from the crowd.…”

The technological origins of radical inventions

“…Another myth is that radical inventions are always based on completely new knowledge (Poel, 2003). In fact, the recombination of existing knowledge is proposed by many scholars to be the ultimate source of novelty (Fleming, 2001;Nerkar, 2003). Even Schumpeter (1939) in the late 1930s considered invention as new combinations or "neue combinationen" (Schumpeter, 1934, pp.…”

“…. an invention can be defined as either a new combination of components or a new relationship between previously combined components" (Fleming, 2001). According to Hargadon (2003) radical inventions are only rarely based on completely new knowledge.…”

“…We therefore depart from the commonly used innovation aspects and focus instead on the invention itself. In particular we would like to contribute to the classic discussion of whether radical inventions are based on completely new knowledge (Poel, 2003) or can be seen as an artefact resulting from the recombination of existing knowledge (Schumpeter, 1939;Fleming, 2001;Nerkar, 2003). A better understanding of the origins of radical inventions might guide organizations in their decisions to either focus on internal development for the creation of new knowledge or to resort to "open innovation" in their search for "neue combinationen" (Schumpeter, 1939).…”