Uncertainty analysis in reliability modeling

A generalized Bayesian approach to model calibration

“…Note that this applies to the instances x j for all j. In this case, the likelihood is nonzero, resulting in a nonzero evidence (16). Thus, given this agreement definition, the probability of finding a model given the truncated data is nonzero.…”

“…the energy dissipation model [11,12], as illustrated in Section 4.2.3, heat transfer models for fire insulation panels [13], energy models [14], dynamic thermal models [15], etc.) and deals with uncertainty through the use of confidence intervals and probability distributions [16].…”

Sensitivity analysis with MC simulation for the failure rate evaluation and reliability assessment

“…In addition to the example of data from field above mentioned, in a complex system as a process or plant other sources of uncertainty affect input data can be considered such as measurement errors for sensor wear or fault, poor information about equipment installation and work environment, environmental condition of use, maintenance activities, partial understanding of the driving forces and mechanisms, and so on [13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. Considering the incomplete knowledge of data, often acquired by fieldfield data of service as, for instance, maintenance information or failure informationor collected in database, and different sources of uncertainty, it is fundamental to identify model inputs that cause significant uncertainty in the output.…”

The Arsenal of Perturbation Bounds for Finite Continuous-Time Markov Chains: A Perspective

“…Perturbation bounds and related approaches for continuous-time Markov chains have been applied in research fields as diverse as reliability theory [1][2][3], queuing theory [4][5][6][7][8], quantum physics [9][10][11][12], climate science [13], biochemical kinetics [14][15][16][17][18][19], economics [20], population genetics [21], and health insurance modeling [22]. In principle, such bounds can be useful in any field where continuous-time Markov chains and their generalizations are used as mathematical models.…”