Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution

Abstract

We examine the impact of the Green Revolution, defined as the diffusion of high-yielding crop varieties (HYVs), on aggregate economic outcomes in developing countries during the second half of the 20th century. We use time variation in the development and diffusion of HYVs of 10 major crops, and the spatial variation in agro-climatically suitability for growing them, to identify the causal effects of adoption. In a sample of 84 counties, we estimate that a 10 percentage points increase in HYV adoption increases GDP per capita by about 15 percent. This effect is fully accounted for by a combination of the direct effect on crop yields, factor adjustment in agriculture, and structural transformation. Our analysis also reveals that the Green Revolution reduced fertility and that the reduction was only partly offset by decreasing mortality rates. The net effect on population growth was therefore negative. AbstractWe examine the impact of the Green Revolution, defined as the diffusion of high-yielding crop varieties (HYVs), on aggregate economic outcomes in developing countries during the second half of the 20th century. We use time variation in the development and diffusion of HYVs of 10 major crops, and the spatial variation in agro-climatically suitability for growing them, to identify the causal effects of adoption. In a sample of 84 counties, we estimate that a 10 percentage points increase in HYV adoption increases GDP per capita by about 15 percent. This effect is fully accounted for by a combination of the direct effect on crop yields, factor adjustment in agriculture, and structural transformation. Our analysis also reveals that the Green Revolution reduced fertility and that the reduction was only partly offset by decreasing mortality rates. The net effect on population growth was therefore negative.

Biodiversity-based innovations fortify agricultural growth in Asia-Pacific economies

“…The Green Revolution is rightly credited with averting Malthusian famines, spurring structural transformation and delivering vast economic dividends (Threwavas, 2002;Pingali, 2012;Gollin et al, 2018). While 'packaged' GR seed x chemical technologies in Asian paddy rice systems did secure an elevated, stable supply of energy-dense foods, we argue that these achievements were paralleled by biodiversity-based innovations.…”

Economic growth, convergence and agricultural economics

“…Given the considerable challenges involved in adapting technologies to a new country (Hausmann and Rodrik 2003), this makes it much easier to develop new manufacturing activities, particularly since firms outsourcing production have a strong incentive to provide the know-how needed for successful production. Gollin, Hansen and Wingender (2018) point to another potentially important contributor to the recent growth takeoff in developing countries-the development and adoption of high-yielding varieties (HYVs) of key agricultural crops. To avoid potential problems of reverse causalitywhere higher growth contributes to adoption of HYVs-they predict adoption based on agroecological potential.…”

Rethinking Development Policy: Deindustrialization, Servicification and Structural Transformation

“…2 Gollin, Hansen, and Wingender (2016) argue that the green revolution has contributed mightily to economic growth in Asia, Latin America, and Africa, both by increasing productivity, thereby relieving the "food problem" described by Gollin, Parente, and Rogerson (2007), generating income, and freeing up labor to facilitate structural transformation. An early discussion of the role of the agriculture in initial stages of economic development can be found in Thorbecke (1970). as retailing, wholesaling, repairing and maintaining, and reselling, to name a few).…”