A comprehensive review of articles on cardiovascular surgery in major general and cardiovascular journals published in 2005 identified a large number that were scientifically sound and broadly relevant. The scientific quality of the 43 articles chosen as most likely to affect the future practice of cardiovascular specialists made it difficult to identify a single work as the "outstanding cardiovascular surgical article of 2005." However, the "most valuable topic award" clearly goes to four articles that distill down and validate multivariable model information into bedside risk prediction tools that quantitate:• The natural history of patients with prior coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) using coronary angiography. • Operative mortality and five-year survival in patients with low ejection fraction (EF) using five clinical variables. • Major infection after CABG using preoperative variables with or without intraoperative variables. • Operative risk for aortic and mitral valve surgery using clinical information.Careful use of these scores to adjust estimates for differences in outcomes in care environments that develop (and care providers who apply) the predictive tool will infuse quantitative thinking into physician deliberation and provide patients with information describing personalized risks and benefits to inform their deliberations about an operation.