Turmoil in the Nile River Basin: Back to the Future?

Abstract

Since the end of the Cold War, the Nile co-basin states have been moving towards constructing a regional water governance regime. The focus has been on how to promote cooperative harmonization of the water needs and growth priorities of all basin countries. Unfortunately, the effort appears to have come to a screeching halt, resuscitating old fears of potential inter-riparian conflicts. This paper examines the evolution of contentious politics of hydrology in the Nile basin in light of the regional and international approaches that have hitherto been employed to bring the co-basin states together on the importance of peaceful utilization of Nile waters.

The future of the Nile: climate change, land use, infrastructure management, and treaty negotiations in a transboundary river basin

“…A new transboundary water treaty for the Nile—the Comprehensive Framework Agreement (CFA)—is currently on the table. This agreement is the outcome of several decades of internationally‐sponsored negotiations, most recently through the Nile Basin Initiative, which sought to develop a Nile treaty that incorporates all the riparian states . The donor‐led negotiations aimed to resolve the conflict between downstream countries’ assertion of a right to Nile waters based on historic use and upstream countries’ calls for equitable use.…”

“…A number of scholars have argued that a cooperative development path within the Nile Basin is preferable to one marked by unilateralism, and that cooperation between the basin states will bring economic benefits . Despite the Nile Basin Initiative's language of cooperation, however, it has been critiqued for failing, in reality, to shift the mode of development from nationally‐centered to basin‐wide …”

“…This agreement is the outcome of several decades of internationallysponsored negotiations, most recently through the Nile Basin Initiative, which sought to develop a Nile treaty that incorporates all the riparian states. 109,113,115 The donor-led negotiations aimed to resolve the conflict between downstream countries' assertion of a right to Nile waters based on historic use and upstream countries' calls for equitable use. Climate change presented an additional point of uncertainty in these negotiations; as experience in other international river basins has shown, such uncertainty can strengthen cooperation, but may, alternatively, exacerbate tensions.…”

“…119,120 Despite the Nile Basin Initiative's language of cooperation, however, it has been critiqued for failing, in reality, to shift the mode of development from nationally-centered to basinwide. 109,113,115 In terms of the CFA, negotiations hit an impasse over a key concept-water security-which negotiators introduced as an effort to forge a compromise between the basin states. 121 This concept, which is not founded in international water law, is defined by Article 14 of the treaty as 'the right of all Nile Basin states to reliable access to and use of the Nile River system for health, agriculture, livelihoods production and development.'…”

Post-2015 Development Priorities for the Arab World

“…In the Eastern Mediterranean (Varis, 2007), the largest change, however, is a decrease in precipitation that occurs in area covering the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey, Syria, Northern Iraq, Northeastern Iran, and Caucasus caused by the decrease in storm track activity over the Eastern Mediterranean. To the South of MENA, the challenges to the supply sources to the Nile Basin resulting for climatic variability; declining rainfall, deforestation, and other forms of land cover change are well documented (Awang, Forootan, Kuhn, Kusche, & Heck, 2014;O. Yohannes & K. Yohannes, 2012;Gebrehiwot, Bewket, Gärdenäs, & Bishop, 2014;  The source of water varies from country to country.…”