The future of the Nile: climate change, land use, infrastructure management, and treaty negotiations in a transboundary river basin

Abstract

The Nile is one of the world's major rivers; its basin is shared by 11 countries and is home to some 300 million people. This article reviews the multidisciplinary literature on the Nile to understand more about the outlook for this geopolitically significant river basin. I start by synthesizing the key results from recent climate change modeling studies, which show a warming trend for the basin, but considerable uncertainty regarding the direction of precipitation and streamflow change. I explore how different actors within the Nile Basin are perceiving and responding to climate change. Second, I look at the significance of land use, both to basin hydrology and as a driver of water demand. I highlight contemporary land use changes that could impact flows within the Nile Basin. Third, I examine the role of infrastructure in influencing the magnitude and temporality of flows along the river. I focus, in particular, on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, its projected impacts, and the concerns it has generated. Finally I explore the geopolitical context of the basin, and the ongoing conflict over water sharing agreements. I look at the treaty currently on the table, the Cooperative Framework Agreement, and the political issues it has raised. In bringing together this diverse literature, the article offers a timely and multifaceted insight into the varied factors that will shape the future of the Nile. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e449. doi: 10.1002/wcc.449 This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > Regional Reviews

Urban Sprawl Sustainability of Mountainous Cities in the Context of Climate Change Adaptability Using a Coupled Coordination Model: A Case Study of Chongqing, China

“…Increasingly, extreme climate and weather events caused by climate change have damaged urban transportation, energy, and municipal infrastructure and caused significant economic losses [35]. For example, climate change has led to a more uneven distribution of precipitation, and local heavy rains within cities have increased, which poses challenges to urban drainage design standards and safe operation of urban infrastructure [36,37]. Urban infrastructure is closely related to the natural environment and is vulnerable to climate factors [37,38].…”

“…For example, climate change has led to a more uneven distribution of precipitation, and local heavy rains within cities have increased, which poses challenges to urban drainage design standards and safe operation of urban infrastructure [36,37]. Urban infrastructure is closely related to the natural environment and is vulnerable to climate factors [37,38]. For example, climate change has a profound impact on the construction and maintenance of transport infrastructure.…”

“…This impacts the effectiveness of energy-related policies, such as energy conservation measures and greenhouse gas emission reduction measures. However, the energy activity is an important input factor for urban sprawl [5,36,37]. Energy activities have significant effects on urban population sprawl, industrial structure adjustments, and spatial layouts [37,39].…”

“…However, the energy activity is an important input factor for urban sprawl [5,36,37]. Energy activities have significant effects on urban population sprawl, industrial structure adjustments, and spatial layouts [37,39]. For example, the energy consumption of primary and tertiary industries is lower than that of secondary industries, which require greater energy consumption.…”

Liquid futures: Water management systems and anticipated environments

“…In the case of the Nile, a river basin shared by 11 countries, the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement allocated fixed volumes of water to downstream riparian states, Sudan and Egypt, based on historical flow patterns. The assumption was that past flows were an adequate guide to the future-an expectation that subsequent patterns of decadal variability and climate model projections have brought into question (Barnes, 2017;Conway, 2005;Muehlmann, 2013). Other cases in which treaty framers assumed that a river's source would remain constant into the future have also been unsettled, leading to challenges within the allocation regime (Erie, 2006;Fleck, 2016;Reisner, 1986).…”