Development of the Sudan agricultural sector model for policy impact analysis

Abstract

An agricultural sector model is developed for Sudan to study the impact of different policy interventions on enhancing agricultural productivity and efficient water use for irrigation. The model considers three farming systems (irrigation, mechanized and traditional rainfed systems). The country is divided into five geographic regions (central, eastern, northern, Kordofan and Darfur regions). The input to the model consists of six key agricultural inputs: land, water, labour, machinery, seeds, fertilizers and pesticides. The model is designed to optimize the production activities for 10 major crops that include cotton, wheat, sorghum, millet, groundnut, sesame, sugar cane, banana, beans and dates. The General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) optimization engine is used to optimize the allocation of resources with the objective of maximizing the net economic returns from agricultural production activities. The model is calibrated using long-term average historical records for the period 1970-2018. The results showed good model prediction capability in meeting the domestic demand and in explaining the key variables that influence the farming activities across the regions.