Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Models to Investigate the Impact of Foreign Trade on Economic Growth in Sudan

Abstract

Foreign commerce is the term for the exchange of goods and services between nations, and it is subject to a wide range of laws, rules, and agreements. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the link between Sudan's economic growth, imports, and exports from 2005 to 2022. Based on a descriptive, analytical, and econometrics methodology, the study estimated the relationship between the study variables using a nonlinear autoregressive model (NARDL). The study's conclusions indicate that, during the study period, exports had a short-term negative influence on the rate of growth in the economy but a positive long-term impact. Additionally, imports have a short-term favorable effect on economic growth rates but a long-term negative one.