Turkey and Cyprus: A Poliheuristic Analysis of Decisions during the Crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974

Abstract

The Cyprus problem is one of the most protracted and complex conflicts in the world. This article uses poliheuristic (PH) theory to analyze Turkey's decision-making during the Cyprus crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974. We utilize the PH model (Mintz 1993, 2004) and its method to systematically examine the decision-making process and outcomes during the three crises. We present primary evidence from governmental archives and secondary from media sources. The two hypotheses derived from the PH literature are supported by evidence. Results confirm Turkish decision-makers employed two-stage decision-making during each crisis. In the first stage, Turkish leaders followed the noncompensatory rule and eliminated options that could incur losses. In the second stage, their calculations were more in line with expected utility maximization. Implications of the case study in terms of PH model, foreign policy analysis, and international relations theory are discussed in the conclusion.

Key Concepts in the Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Comparative Examination Using Systemist Theory

“…Figure 2 Turkey and Cyprus: A Poliheuristic Analysis of Decisions during the Crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974(Özgür Özdamar and Khan Erciyas, 2020 Diagrammed by: Steven B. strategic calculations about the regional balance of power were a significant factor in the decision to use force Özdamar and Erciyas (2020) begin with two initial variables (the green ovals) that represent the beginning points for their study (RIVALRY BETWEEN TURKEY AND GREECE OVER CONTROL OF CYPRUS and NEED TO EXAMINE TURKEY'S DECISION MAKING DURING THE CYPRUS CRISES WITH GREECE OF 1964, 1967, AND 1974. With these two initial variables in place, systemist graphics help us to identify two applications of poliheuristic theory in Özdamar and Erciyas's (2020)…”

“…For both studies included in this article, the environment is the World Beyond. In contrast, for Redd (2002), the system is International Relations, whereas, for Özdamar and Erciyas (2020), it is Political Science. The system for Redd (2002) is related to International Relations primarily because his experimental tests of poliheuristic theory apply to world leaders and how we can thus expect them to process information en route to choices pertaining to foreign policy.…”

“…For nearly thirty years, the poliheuristic theory of decision making has been used by scholars to explain leaders' decision-making processes and choices. Poliheuristic theory has been applied to fields of study such as terrorism (see, e.g., Mintz et al 2006;Chatagnier et al 2012), international bargaining (see, e.g., Astorino-Courtois and Trusty 2000;Beckerman-Boys 2014), the diversionary use of force (see, e.g., Mintz 1993;DeRouen 2001), coalition formation (see, e.g., Mintz 1995), international environmental agreements (see, e.g., Below 2008Below , 2009, nuclear proliferation (see, e.g., O'Reilly 2012), how foreign policy decisions are made at the domestic level (see, e.g., Brummer 2013;Redd 2002;Mintz 2004;Kinne 2005;Goertz 2004;Mintz 2005;Dacey and Carlson 2004;Yang 2008, 2016;Christensen and Redd 2004;Mintz et al 1997), and international crises (see, e.g., Mintz 1993;Redd 2005;DeRouen 2003;DeRouen and Sprecher 2004;Kinne 2005;Keller and Yang 2009;Sandal et al 2011;Taylor-Robinson and Redd 2003;James and Zhang 2005;Özdamar and Erciyas 2020;Westcott 2019;Ye 2007), as well as many others. The studies cited above have also used different methodological approaches to test the tenets of poliheuristic theory, including experimental, formal, statistical (large-N), and case study methods.…”

“…I aim to show the different applications of poliheuristic theory to important questions in International Relations and foreign policy analysis, both from conceptual as well as methodological perspectives. A systemist theory lens allows us to compare and contrast the application of poliheuristic theory to the Turkish crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974(Özdamar and Erciyas 2020) with Redd's (2002) use of poliheuristic theory to explain the influence of advisers on foreign policy decision making and choice.…”

“…I, along with assistance from the editors of this Special Issue, Sarah Gansen and Patrick James, created a systemist graphic for the Redd (2002) and Özdamar and Erciyas (2020) articles in order to explicate the specific theoretical arguments that each made and the findings they arrived at using the poliheuristic theory of decision making. Using the poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making and process-tracing techniques, in an experimental setting, Redd (2002) examines the effects of the presence of advisers on strategy selection and the influence of strategy selection on choice in a hypothetical foreign policy scenario.…”