TU Delft expert judgment data base

Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.005

Cited by 265 publications

(223 citation statements)

References 20 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

217

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…If the aim is prediction, forecast or projections, different approaches are available based on formal modelling, trend extrapolations, probabilistic approaches and expert opinions [28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36]. Guessing what the future may bring was not the primary scope of this study and as a result we did not take this direction.…”

Section: Analysis: Interpreting Our Results Within Common Narratives mentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:In four focus group exercises involving both forecasting and backcasting approaches, we gave approximately 100 Australian citizens the opportunity to discuss likely, desirable and feared futures to 2050. The image they paint is both coherent and consistent. Education, governance, personal attitudes and societal trends, rather than specific events, are drivers of a future which is perceived as being largely shaped by human choices. Innovation is believed to be more necessary in novel social arrangements than in further technology. The most feared futures arise from an amplification of trends already at play in the present: economic growth at the expense of the environment and quality of life, lack of equity, poor government, corporate greed, commercialism and erosion of social values. Economic and material growth does not feature in the most desired futures which are local, inclusive, peaceful, equitable and in some cases frugal. The visions and scenarios developed find a place within established foresight frameworks and global political narratives, but seem to lie at the fringe of current media and short-term political discourse. These results should not be interpreted as representative of the overall Australian population, but suggest that extending the analysis to the broader community could provide significant insights and enrich the discussion of important societal choices. OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2015, 7 223

show abstract

Section: Analysis: Interpreting Our Results Within Common Narratives mentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Experience shows that Cooke's classical method outperforms both the best expert and the "equal weight" combination estimates. In an evaluation involving 45 studies it performs significantly better than both in 27 studies and performs equally as well as the best expert in 15 of them [14].…”

Section: Synthesizing Expert Judgmentsmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…This performance based method aims to select the experts that are well calibrated and combine their judgments in an optimal way. The track record of this method [14] positions it a best-practice when it comes to combining eliciting expert judgment of uncertain quantities.…”

Section: A the Expert Judgment Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimates of Success Rates of Denial-of-Service Attacks

Sommestad

Holm

Ekstedt

2011

2011IEEE 10th International Conference on Trust, Security and Privacy in Computing and Communications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Denial-of-service (DoS) attacks are an imminent and real threat to many enterprises. Decision makers in these enterprises need be able to assess the risk associated with such attacks and to make decisions regarding measures to put in place to increase the security posture of their systems. Experiments, simulations and analytical research have produced data related to DoS attacks. However, these results have been produced for different environments and are difficult to interpret, compare, and aggregate for the purpose of decision making. This paper aims to summarize knowledge available in the field by synthesizing the judgment of 23 domain experts using an establishing method for expert judgment analysis. Different system architecture's vulnerability to DoS attacks are assessed together with the impact of a number of countermeasures against DoS attacks.

QC 20120203

show abstract

“…Método 1: el facilitador puede hacer uso del método de calibración propuesto por Cooke & Goossens (2008), este método se basa en realizar preguntas semilla a los expertos, las preguntas semilla son preguntas acerca del tema de interés pero para las que ya se conoce la respuesta, entonces, el facilitador podrá asignar una calificación al nivel de experticia del experto con base en el número de preguntas semilla que el experto haya contestado correctamente.…”

Section: Metodología Propuestaunclassified

Una propuesta metodológica para elicitar el vector de parámetros π de la distribución Multinomial

Rivera

Morales

2015

RevComEst

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

<p>Cuando no existe información previa o es muy costosa obtenerla, las distribuciones a priori informativas brindan una opción práctica y “económica” que sirven de base para el inicio de un proyecto o un estudio en particular. En este trabajo presentamos una propuesta metodológica para llevar a cabo un proceso de elicitación que permite extraer el conocimiento de un experto e incorporarlo como una distribución a priori del vector de parámetros de la distribución Multinomial. Aquí presentamos la metodología propuesta acompañada de una ilustración y finalizamos con algunas conclusiones y recomendaciones.</p>

show abstract

TU Delft expert judgment data base

Cited by 265 publications

References 20 publications

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

Estimates of Success Rates of Denial-of-Service Attacks

Una propuesta metodológica para elicitar el vector de parámetros π de la distribución Multinomial

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About