Tsunami forecast analysis for the May 2006 Tonga tsunami

Abstract

[1] This study applies tsunami forecast models developed for NOAA's Tsunami Warning and Forecast System to investigate the May 2006 Tonga Tsunami. Inversion of the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) measurements estimates a tsunami magnitude equivalent to an earthquake moment magnitude of 8.0. The DARTconstrained modeling forecasts show good agreement with observations at eight coastal tide stations in Hawaii, U.S. West Coast, and Alaska, including first arrival times, wave periods, wave amplitudes, and decay during the day following the earthquake. The forecast system correctly reproduces the reflected waves from North America and the scattered waves by the bottom topography in the South Pacific, which arrived in the Hawaiian Islands 16 and 18.5 h after the earthquake, respectively. Wavelet analysis of the tsunami waves suggests that harbor and local shelf resonances may be predominantly responsible for the late occurrence of the maximum wave observed in some coastal areas. These results suggest expanding the operational use of the real-time forecast models and demonstrate the applicability of the forecast results for ''all-clear'' evaluations, search and rescue operations, as well as event and postevent planning. This research highlights the value of high-resolution inundation models in real-time forecasts during a long-duration hazard for coastal communities. It also provides a rigorous and successful test of the performance and accuracy of the forecast models when run in real-time mode.Citation: Tang, L., V.

An approximate method of short-term tsunami forecast and the hindcasting of some recent events

“…Tang et al, 2008;Wei et al, 2008;Titov, 2009) shows that the forecast quality obtained by different methods is comparable. The advantage of the proposed method is that it does not require pre-computed database of synthetic tsunami waveforms.…”

“…This technology was applied in an operative regime for several 2005-2011 major events and demonstrated to be highly efficient (cf. Tang et al, 2008;Wei et al, 2008;Titov, 2009). The maximum wave heights and other parameters of arriving tsunami for several US sites were predicted and were later found to be in good agreement with the actual in situ observed waves (Titov, 2009).…”

The July 15, 2009 Fiordland, New Zealand Tsunami: Real-Time Assessment

“…High-resolution inundation modeling may be required to produce such assessments for coastal locations. TANG et al, (2008) have demonstrated the ability of the flooding forecast models in combination with the tsunami propagation database to reproduce very late arrival of high amplitude trail waves for the May 2006 Tonga tsunami in Hawaii. So the capability of predicting this phenomenon may be at hand, but requires more investigation.…”

Model-based tsunami warnings derived from observed impacts

“…This event has been considered in detail by several studies, such as Tang et al (2008), Greenslade and Titov (2009) and, in the specific context of T2, Greenslade et al (2010). This event produced no impacts on the Australian coastline or external territories and the desired warning scheme consists of no threats in any coastal zone (not shown).…”