Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life

Abstract

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication.ISBN: 978-0-8330-9994-5 For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2314Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND CorporationR® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Pete Soriano.iii PrefaceMuch has been written about the growing disregard for facts, data, and analysis in political and civil discourse in the United States. Increasingly, it seems that important policy debates, both within the federal government and across the electorate, are as likely to hinge on opinion or anecdote as they are on objective facts or rigorous analysis. However, policy decisions made primarily on the basis of opinion or anecdote can have deleterious effects on American democracy and might impose significant costs on the public.The current discourse about the diminishing role of, trust in, and respect for facts, data, and analysis is often hamstrung by the use of conflicting language and unclear or undefined terms. Without a common language with which to discuss the problem-which we are calling Truth Decay-the search for solutions becomes more difficult. This report seeks to address this gap by offering a clear definition of Truth Decay and an examination of its drivers and consequences-all with the aim of creating a foundation for more-meaningful discussion of the challenges to U.S. political and civil discourse. The report outlines a research agenda designed to guide further study of Truth Decay and the formulation of responses. The report is the first of several publications that will discuss Truth Decay in different contexts and from different angles. RAND VenturesThe RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughiv Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration out the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND Ventur...

Geography's secret powers to save the world

“…This is the situation in American society and may be the situation elsewhere in the world as well, particularly in countries with strong right‐wing leadership such as Brazil, Hungary, and Turkey. We have an eroded civil discourse, characterized in a recent Rand Corporation (Kavanagh and Rich ) report as “truth decay.” This situation is characterized by several trends. First, there is increasing disagreement about facts and analytical interpretations of data.…”

“…As the Rand Report noted:

If people were readily willing to update prior beliefs when presented with contradictory facts or relied more heavily on objective facts and analysis in decision making than on social cues, emotions, and heuristics, it would be easier to correct misinformation and disinformation, prevent or break formation of echo chambers, and train people to evaluate news media objectively. (Kavanagh and Rich , 82)

…”

Power, Truth and Politics

“…The Rand Corporation recently published a research report entitled Truth Decay (Kavanagh and Rich ), which they define as a set of four related trends: Increasing disagreement about facts and analytical interpretations of facts and data. A blurring of the line between opinion and fact. An increasing relative volume, and resulting influence, of opinion and personal experience over fact. Declining trust in formerly respected sources of factual information. (Kavanagh and Rich , 21–40) …”

“…Polarization, they write, “both causes and is exacerbated by Truth Decay,” and as

each side develops its own interpretation of facts, the opposing sides can move further and further apart in their beliefs about key issues and even in their perceptions of each other. (Kavanagh and Rich , 153)

…”

A Framework for Open Policy Analysis

“…This overall situation threatens the credibility of policy analysis by contributing to increasing disagreements on analytical interpretations of data, blurring the line between evidence Running Head: OPEN POLICY ANALYSIS and opinion, and lowering confidence in respected expert sources of factual information (Kavanagh & Rich, 2018). For example, the US Congress assigned so little credibility to the analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in their legislative discussion of healthcare reform, that all former CBO directors wrote a letter requesting that Congress give more weight to CBO's analysis (Crippen et al, 2017).…”