2020
DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1742927
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Trust and fertility in uncertain times

Abstract: Recent studies have shown higher uncertainty to be associated with fertility decline. This study considers the role of social trust as a coping mechanism when general uncertainty increases. We analyse the fertility data of Italian provinces from 2004 to 2013, thereby incorporating the period of economic recession, which unexpectedly and exogenously increased uncertainty across the population. We find a robust and significantly positive impact of social trust on fertility, which is stronger among younger age gr… Show more

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Cited by 37 publications
(33 citation statements)
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“…Although our results would also seem to contrast with mainstream media coverage predicting a “COVID-19 baby boom,” our findings are in line with reports that suggest that in times of uncertainty, longer term reproductive commitments are postponed. 14 Moreover, global fertility trajectories owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated social distancing measures may differ depending on economic status. Factors such as a society's development, demographic transition, access to contraception, and availability of assisted reproductive technology through fertility services may have a differential effect on conception rates.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Although our results would also seem to contrast with mainstream media coverage predicting a “COVID-19 baby boom,” our findings are in line with reports that suggest that in times of uncertainty, longer term reproductive commitments are postponed. 14 Moreover, global fertility trajectories owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated social distancing measures may differ depending on economic status. Factors such as a society's development, demographic transition, access to contraception, and availability of assisted reproductive technology through fertility services may have a differential effect on conception rates.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Coping mechanisms for dealing with uncertainty will consequently matter. There is evidence that, in periods with unexpected increases in economic uncertainty, fertility declines less in areas characterized by stronger trust and social capital (13).…”
Section: Possible Post-pandemic Fertility Trajectories According To Regional Income Levelmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Demographic characteristics such as female and male partners' age (e.g., Billari and Tabellini 2010) and the number of previous children (Dommermuth, Klobas, and Lappegård 2015) are among the microlevel factors that have been found to affect fertility behaviour. One strand of the literature has focussed on the impact of the socioeconomic conditions of individuals, such as income, wealth, educational attainment, social background, and employment (e.g., Arpino, Luppi, and Rosina 2021;Bellani 2020, Jones, Schoonbroodt, andTertilt 2011;Kreyenfeld, Andersson, and Pailhé 2012;Murphy and Wang 2001), as well as trust (Aassve, Le Moglie, and Mencarini 2020) and subjective well-being (e.g., Aassve. Arpino, and Balbo 2016).…”
Section: Time Discounting Preferences and Fertilitymentioning
confidence: 99%