Time preferences and fertility: Evidence from Italy

Abstract

OBJECTIVETime preferences, also referred to as impatience, is a personal characteristic that has been found to influence different types of decisions, from financial investments to schooling decisions. The present study is the first that empirically explores whether this trait represents a determinant of human reproductive behaviors. BACKGROUNDFertility decisions, as all life actions, imply a balancing of anticipated costs and benefits whose expectations are formed under uncertainty. Fertility research has addressed the backward reasonings (e.g., socioeconomic, psychological, biological factors) influencing fertility decisions. Yet, the role of forward factors, such as the preference for immediate but lower benefits versus future but higher benefits, in influencing fertility decisions has been overlooked. METHODData are from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth carried out by the Bank of Italy every two years on a sample of about 8,000 households. In particular, we make use of a question included in the 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2012 waves to examine whether, controlling for backward factors, impatience affects parity progressions. RESULTSResults from logistic regression models indicate an inverse U-shaped association between impatience and the transition to the first and second child during the observation period, meaning that for very impatient and very patient individuals the probability of having a first and second child is lower than for individuals within intermediate levels of impatience.

Parental time preferences and educational choices: The role of children’s gender and of social origin

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Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic

“…Much of the literature on fertility is based on the study of the social determinants of fertility, which mainly accounts for the influence of what already happened in previous stages of the life course, and thus considers factors such as educational attainment, previous (un)employment episodes and partnership histories (Barbieri et al, 2015;Busetta et al, 2019;Kreyenfeld et al, 2012;Vignoli et al, 2020c). These experiences are shaped during socialization and by personal predispositions, like risk aversion or time discounting preferences, which may also have a direct influence on fertility choices (Bellani et al, 2021;Schmidt, 2008). Psychological predispositions, cumulative past experiences over the life course and the present socioeconomic status are the standard elements usually identified as determinants of fertility intentions and behaviors (Busetta et al, 2019;Dantis and Rizzi, 2020;Mills and Blossfeld, 2013;Vignoli et al, 2012), and are aspects that need to be controlled for in any empirical model of fertility intentions.…”

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