Risk tolerance and fertility: Evidence from a lottery question in Italy

Abstract

Objective This article offers a contribution to the fertility literature by considering the role of risk tolerance in the fertility decision‐making process. Background Despite a long tradition in fertility research emphasizing the great uncertainty underlying the decision to have children, the role of risk tolerance has been overlooked. Elaborating on previous theoretical approaches including those that have considered children as a “security” or as a “risky investment,” whether and how risk tolerance is related to fertility outcomes has been analyzed. Method The analyses are based on longitudinal data from the Survey of Household Income and Wealth carried out by the Bank of Italy and rely on a lottery question to measure risk tolerance. Probit models for the probability of having the first and second child are estimated. Results Results indicate that the most risk‐tolerant individuals have the lowest probability to have a (an additional) child. This is consistent with the theoretical approaches that conceptualize children as an insurance and an immanent value. These results are particularly evident for low‐income individuals. Implications The findings point to the importance of considering risk tolerance in fertility research to gain a more complete understanding of heterogeneities in fertility behaviors.

Climate change worries and fertility intentions. Insights from three EU countries.

“…education, distinguishing whether the respond has completed tertiary education or not; occupation, coded as employed, unemployed, inactive, or in education, and parents' education (tertiary or not); and health conditions (good, fair, bad) (Fahlén & Oláh, 2018;Gatta et al, 2022). Furthermore, the models account for other values and personal traits that may simultaneity affect climate concern and fertility intentions, namely, religiosity (self-reported 0 to 10) and risk aversion (0-5 scale) (Bein et al, 2021;Bellani & Arpino, 2022). Descriptive statistics for all variables can be found in Table 1.…”

Risk Attitudes in Late Adulthood: Do Parenthood Status and Family Size Matter?

“…Indeed, the literature has long debated whether risk-taking represents an innate and stable personality trait or whether it is context specific (Rolison et al, 2014). If innate risk attitudes also affect fertility choices (Bellani & Arpino, 2022; Schmidt, 2008), then the error terms would correlate with parenthood status and family size, thereby leading to selection and endogeneity biases in OLS estimation. For example, if women with higher innate risk tolerance are less likely to use contraceptives and more likely to face unplanned births, then the estimated OLS associations between risk tolerance in late adulthood and family size would be overestimated.…”

Individuals’ left-right self-placement and their fertility intentions: Evidence from the European Social Survey

“…In the fertility literature, the value of children has been linked to the capacity of a child to ''reduce uncertainty'' in a potential parent's life (Friedman et al 2004). Recently, Bellani & Arpino (2022) found that the most risk averse individuals are those who are more likely to have children. Thus, bridging the two strands of the literature, we can argue that rightism may influence positively fertility intentions because having children is a way to put order and certainty in one's life, while complying with traditional norms of order and stability in a society.…”