Climate change worries and fertility intentions. Insights from three EU countries.

Abstract

Objective: This study investigates the relationship between climate change concern and fertility intentions in Finland, Estonia, and Sweden.Background: Climate change concern is said to influence fertility intentions either by prompting individuals to reduce their intended fertility to alleviate the pressure on the planet or by fostering uncertainty about the future and a sense of guilt associated with bringing a child into a world perceived as doomed. Yet, it remains unclear whether climate change concern is associated with fertility intentions on a broader population level or if its relevance is limited to a specific subset of activist individuals.Method: The analysis relies on data from the 2021 Gender and Generation Survey. Multinomial logistic regressions are employed to assess the likelihood of both positive and negative fertility intentions. Furthermore, for individuals expressing positive intentions, OLS regressions are used to estimate the intended number of children. Interactions between climate change concern and age and education are considered to address potential heterogeneity in effects.Results: Those very worried about climate change are more likely to intend to remain childless, and less likely to intend to have children, while there is no association between climate worries and the total intended number of children. Results seems especially driven by the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups, while no clear pattern emerges across educational levels.Conclusion: This study highlights, for the first time in the European context and on a representative sample, that climate change concern is negatively associated to fertility intentions.