Tropical forcing of increased Southern Ocean climate variability revealed by a 140-year subantarctic temperature reconstruction

Turney, Chris S. M.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Palmer, Jonathan; Sebille, Erik van; Thomas, Zoë; McGlone, Matt S.; Richardson, Sarah J.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.; Fenwick, Pavla; Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Wilson, Kerry Jayne; Carter, Lionel; Lipson, Mathew; Jones, Richard T.; Harsch, Melanie A.; Clark, Graeme F.; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M.; Rogers, Tracey L.; Rainsley, Eleanor; Ciasto, Laura M.; Waterman, Stephanie; Thomas, Elizabeth R.; Visbeck, Martin

doi:10.5194/cp-13-231-2017

Cited by 31 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 80 publications

(173 reference statements)

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“…there is also a significant relationship between these sub-Antarctic spring and summer temperatures and the Niño 3 region in the tropical Pacific (Turney et al 2017).…”

Section: Temperature Trends In the Extratropical Southern Hemispherementioning

confidence: 95%

“…Nearby, New Zealand has experienced similar temperature increases; the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) has produced two different temperature time series to show country-wide temperature changes. One is a seven-station series (Salinger 1981) Elsewhere in the mid-latitudes, a temperature reconstruction was created for a 140-year period at Macquarie and Campbell, two island stations south of New Zealand (Turney et al 2017). The authors found that there was a significant increase in variability beginning in the 1940s, with increasing westerly winds across the Southern Ocean and a maximum pressure gradient in austral summer.…”

Section: Temperature Trends In the Extratropical Southern Hemispherementioning

confidence: 99%

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Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Middle and High Latitudes (1957–2016)

et al. 2019

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Multiple studies in recent years have documented cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula since the late 1990s, opposing the general longer-term warming trend previously reported for this region. Multi-decadal temperature trends in West Antarctica, in comparison, are more difficult to evaluate, as Byrd is the only long-term station in the area, compared to many long-term staffed stations on the Peninsula. The study presented here aims to puts temperature changes in the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica into a larger spatial and temporal perspective, predominantly focusing on observational data due to the unreliability of reanalyses in the southern high-latitudes prior to 1979. The primary data source comes from monthly stationbased surface temperature observations across the extratropical Southern Hemisphere. Temperature trends are evaluated over various periods, with the longest period from 1957-2016 (1957 is the International Geophysical Year), and then a more recent period of 1979-2016 that is split into 1979-1997 and 1999-2016, to examine the Peninsula cooling. The spatial and temporal aspects of this study, with a maximum duration of 60 years and 59 stations included, and its focus on observational data are what makes it unique. HadISST1 is utilized for sea surface temperatures, and the ERA-Interim reanalysis provides MSLP data for circulation pattern analysis; both of these are used to identify large-scale patterns that correspond with the observational temperatures. Our results confirm the statistically significant cooling in both station observations and sea surface temperature trends throughout the entire Antarctic Peninsula region in the past 17 years (1999-2016), caused by an abnormal pressure pattern driving southerly winds across this area. However, the full 60-year period shows statistically significant, widespread warming across the Southern Hemisphere mid-and high-latitudes, including the iv Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica. Positive SST trends broadly reflect these warming trends, especially in the mid-latitudes. Furthermore, we confirm the known prominent influence of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on southern mid-and high-latitude climate variability, the positive SAM trend in recent decades, and the related cooling over East Antarctica. Expanding on these results, when we remove the influence of the SAM from the station temperature records, we find statistically significant warming across all of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, including East Antarctica, revealing strong background warming. If the SAM begins trending less positive in the future (as a result of Antarctic stratospheric ozone recovery, for example), this background warming could become more evident, and could have much greater implications for global climate. v Dedication To my parents: for all your love and support over the years vi Acknowledgements

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“…there is also a significant relationship between these sub-Antarctic spring and summer temperatures and the Niño 3 region in the tropical Pacific (Turney et al 2017).…”

Section: Temperature Trends In the Extratropical Southern Hemispherementioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Temperature Trends In the Extratropical Southern Hemispherementioning

confidence: 99%

Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Middle and High Latitudes (1957–2016)

et al. 2019

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“…8), Ninnis Glacier underwent a major retreat in the 1940s (Frezzotti et al, 1998) and there was a switch from dominant outlet glacier retreat across the wider region in the 1970s and 80s to cooler conditions 325 and glacier advance from 1990 to 2010 (Miles et al, 2013). A similar change in wind pattern may also be reflected in temperature reconstructions from 1870 to 2010 in the New Zealand subantarctic islands, which lie directly between the Cook-Ninnis-Mertz region and New Zealand, where there is an abrupt switch towards a more variable climate from the 1940s onwards (Turney et al, 2017). Evidence of such variability is also recorded in wind direction 330 at the nearest research station, Dumont d'Urville, where there was an abrupt shift in the 1990s towards more easterly winds (Fig.…”

mentioning

confidence: 79%

Velocity increases at Cook Glacier, East Antarctica linked to ice shelf loss and a subglacial flood event

Miles¹,

Stokes²,

Jamieson³

2018

Preprint

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“…When breeding, seabirds are central place foragers, which increases potential niche overlap among species (Connan et al 2014) and their co-existence is made possible by differences in the timing of breeding (Cooper et al 2001), diet (Ridoux 1994) and foraging and nesting locations (Weimerskirch et al 1986). Despite our understanding of the incubation and chick-rearing stages, it is less clear how resource partitioning is achieved in the energetically critical pre-laying period of egg formation (Moreno et al 2008, Sorensen et al 2009 or how this partitioning may be disrupted under what have been observed to be rapidly changing environmental conditions (Le Roux and McGeoch 2008, Constable et al 2014, Turney et al 2017, McQuaid 2018.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multidimensional stable isotope analysis illuminates resource partitioning in a sub‐Antarctic island bird community

et al. 2019

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A central theme in community ecology is understanding how similar species co-exist and how their interactions may evolve in the context of climate change. Most studies of resource partitioning among central place foragers, particularly birds, focus on the offspring-rearing period, when they are accessible, but breeding success may be determined earlier and little is known about how such species partition resources at the onset of breeding. We used a non-invasive approach to evaluate resource partitioning in co-existing females at a sub-Antarctic island during their pre-laying periods. Three hypotheses were tested using carbon, nitrogen and oxygen stable isotope ratios measured in shells and membranes of hatched eggs as ecological tracers: 1) resource partitioning by geographic location and trophic level will exist among the 12 bird species and will be enhanced within taxonomic groups; 2) given the absence of strong oxygen gradients in the Southern Ocean we will not detect spatial structuring based on oxygen isotopes, but differences will exist between resident and oceanic species as the former may use meteoric water; 3) capital and income breeder strategies can be differentiated using stable isotopes of egg remains.Two and three dimensional isotopic data showed resource partitioning among species. As predicted, segregation was evident within the four main taxonomic groups: penguins, albatrosses, burrowing petrels and giant petrels. Unexpectedly, oxygen isotopes revealed widespread use of meteoric water among a suite of sub-Antarctic birds. Stable isotopes allowed us to identify females of most species as income breeders at the onset of breeding, with the exception of the females of the two crested penguin exhibiting a mix of income and capital resources use. Multidimensional isotopic analyses revealed that resource partitioning exists at multiple stages of the annual cycle in ways likely to be important under global change, exhibiting wide potential for ecosystem analysis.

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Tropical forcing of increased Southern Ocean climate variability revealed by a 140-year subantarctic temperature reconstruction

Cited by 31 publications

References 80 publications

Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Middle and High Latitudes (1957–2016)

Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Middle and High Latitudes (1957–2016)

Velocity increases at Cook Glacier, East Antarctica linked to ice shelf loss and a subglacial flood event

Multidimensional stable isotope analysis illuminates resource partitioning in a sub‐Antarctic island bird community

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