Seabirds are among the most threatened groups of birds, and predation by invasive mammals is one of the most acute threats at their island breeding stations. Island restoration projects increasingly involve the eradication of invasive non-native mammals, with benefits for seabirds and other island fauna. To date, demonstrated benefits of invasive mammal eradication include increased seabird nesting success and enhanced adult survival. However, the recovery dynamics of seabird populations have not been documented. Drawing on data from across the world, we assemble population growth rates (k) of 181 seabird populations of 69 species following successful eradication projects. After successful eradication, the median growth rate was 1.119 and populations with positive growth (k > 1; n = 151) greatly outnumbered those in decline (k < 1; n = 23, and seven showed no population change). Population growth was faster (1) at newly established colonies compared to those already established, (2) in the first few years after eradication, (3) among gulls and terns compared to other seabird groups, and (4) when several invasive mammals were eradicated together in the course of the restoration project. The first two points suggest immigration is important for colony growth, the third point reflects the relative lack of philopatry among gulls and terns while the fourth reinforces current best practise, the removal of all invasive mammals where feasible.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied in conservation management to predict suitable habitat for poorly known populations. High predictive performance of SDMs is evident in validations performed within the model calibration area (interpolation), but few studies have assessed SDM transferability to novel areas (extrapolation), particularly across large spatial scales or pelagic ecosystems. We performed rigorous SDM validation tests on distribution data from three populations of a long-ranging marine predator, the grey petrel Procellaria cinerea, to assess model transferability across the Southern Hemisphere (25-65°S). Oceanographic data were combined with tracks of grey petrels from two remote sub-Antarctic islands (Antipodes and Kerguelen) using boosted regression trees to generate three SDMs: one for each island population, and a combined model. The predictive performance of these models was assessed using withheld tracking data from within the model calibration areas (interpolation), and from a third population, Marion Island (extrapolation). Predictive performance was assessed using k-fold cross validation and point biserial correlation. The two population-specific SDMs included the same predictor variables and suggested birds responded to the same broad-scale oceanographic influences. However, all model validation tests, including of the combined model, determined strong interpolation but weak extrapolation capabilities. These results indicate that habitat use reflects both its availability and bird preferences, such that the realized distribution patterns differ for each population. The spatial predictions by the three SDMs were compared with tracking data and fishing effort to demonstrate the conservation pitfalls of extrapolating SDMs outside calibration regions. This exercise revealed that SDM predictions would have led to an underestimate of overlap with fishing effort and potentially misinformed bycatch mitigation efforts. Although SDMs can elucidate potential distribution patterns relative to large-scale climatic and oceanographic conditions, knowledge of local habitat availability and preferences is necessary to understand and successfully predict region-specific realized distribution patterns.

Aim:The distribution of marine predators is driven by the distribution and abundance of their prey; areas preferred by multiple marine predator species should therefore indicate areas of ecological significance. The Southern Ocean supports large populations of seabirds and marine mammals and is undergoing rapid environmental change.The management and conservation of these predators and their environment relies on understanding their distribution and its link with the biophysical environment, as the latter determines the distribution and abundance of prey. We addressed this issue using tracking data from 14 species of marine predators to identify important habitat.Location: Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. Methods:We used tracking data from 538 tag deployments made over a decade at the Subantarctic Prince Edward Islands. For each real track, we simulated a set of pseudo-tracks that allowed a presence-availability habitat modelling approach that estimates an animal's habitat preference. Using model ensembles of boosted regression trees and random forests, we modelled these tracks as a response to a set of 17 environmental variables. We combined the resulting species-specific models to evaluate areas of mean importance. | METHODSThe Prince Edward Islands (46.9°S, 37.7°E) are situated in the southwest Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean (Figure 1). The Results: Real tracking locations covered 39.75 million km 2 , up to 7,813 km from the Prince Edward Islands. Areas of high mean importance were located broadly from the Subtropical Zone to the Polar Frontal Zone in summer and from the Subantarctic to Antarctic Zones in winter. Areas of high mean importance were best predicted by factors including wind speed, sea surface temperature, depth and current speed. Main conclusions:The models and predictions developed here identify important habitat of marine predators around the Prince Edward Islands and can support the largescale conservation and management of Subantarctic ecosystems and the marine predators they sustain. The results also form the basis of future efforts to predict the consequences of environmental change. K E Y W O R D Sareas of ecological

The identification of geographic areas where the densities of animals are highest across their annual cycles is a crucial step in conservation planning. In marine environments, however, it can be particularly difficult to map the distribution of species, and the methods used are usually biased towards adults, neglecting the distribution of other life‐history stages even though they can represent a substantial proportion of the total population. Here we develop a methodological framework for estimating population‐level density distributions of seabirds, integrating tracking data across the main life‐history stages (adult breeders and non‐breeders, juveniles and immatures). We incorporate demographic information (adult and juvenile/immature survival, breeding frequency and success, age at first breeding) and phenological data (average timing of breeding and migration) to weight distribution maps according to the proportion of the population represented by each life‐history stage. We demonstrate the utility of this framework by applying it to 22 species of albatrosses and petrels that are of conservation concern due to interactions with fisheries. Because juveniles, immatures and non‐breeding adults account for 47%–81% of all individuals of the populations analysed, ignoring the distributions of birds in these stages leads to biased estimates of overlap with threats, and may misdirect management and conservation efforts. Population‐level distribution maps using only adult distributions underestimated exposure to longline fishing effort by 18%–42%, compared with overlap scores based on data from all life‐history stages. Synthesis and applications. Our framework synthesizes and improves on previous approaches to estimate seabird densities at sea, is applicable for data‐poor situations, and provides a standard and repeatable method that can be easily updated as new tracking and demographic data become available. We provide scripts in the R language and a Shiny app to facilitate future applications of our approach. We recommend that where sufficient tracking data are available, this framework be used to assess overlap of seabirds with at‐sea threats such as overharvesting, fisheries bycatch, shipping, offshore industry and pollutants. Based on such an analysis, conservation interventions could be directed towards areas where they have the greatest impact on populations.

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Since 2004 there has been mounting evidence of the severe impact of introduced house mice (Mus musculusL.) killing chicks of burrow-nesting petrels at Gough Island. We monitored seven species of burrow-nesting petrels in 2014 using a combination of infra-red video cameras augmented by burrowscope nest inspections. All seven camera-monitored Atlantic petrel (Pterodroma incertaSchlegel) chicks were killed by mice within hours of hatching (average 7.2±4.0 hours) with an 87% chick failure rate (n=83 hatchlings). Several grey petrel (Procellaria cinereaGmelin) chicks were found with mouse wounds and 60% of chicks failed (n=35 hatchlings). Video surveillance revealed one (of seven nests filmed) fatal attack on a great shearwater (Puffinus gravisO’Reilly) chick and two (of nine) on soft-plumaged petrel (Pterodroma mollisGould) chicks. Mice killed the chicks of the recently discovered summer-breeding MacGillivray’s prion (Pachyptila macgillivrayiMathews), with a chick mortality rate of 82% in 2013/14 and 100% in 2014/15. The closely-related broad-billed prion (P. vittataForster) breeds in late winter and also had a chick mortality rate of 100% in 2014. The results provide further evidence of the dire situation for seabirds nesting on Gough Island and the urgent need for mouse eradication.

Most plastic debris floating at sea is thought to come from land-based sources, but there is little direct evidence to support this assumption. Since 1984, stranded debris has been recorded along the west coast of Inaccessible Island, a remote, uninhabited island in the central South Atlantic Ocean that has a very high macrodebris load (∼5 kg·m−1). Plastic drink bottles show the fastest growth rate, increasing at 15% per year compared with 7% per year for other debris types. In 2018, we examined 2,580 plastic bottles and other containers (one-third of all debris items) that had accumulated on the coast, and a further 174 bottles that washed ashore during regular monitoring over the course of 72 d (equivalent to 800 bottles·km−1·y−1). The oldest container was a high-density polyethylene canister made in 1971, but most were polyethylene terephthalate drink bottles of recent manufacture. Of the bottles that washed up during our survey, 90% were date-stamped within 2 y of stranding. In the 1980s, two-thirds of bottles derived from South America, carried 3,000 km by the west wind drift. By 2009, Asia had surpassed South America as the major source of bottles, and by 2018, Asian bottles comprised 73% of accumulated and 83% of newly arrived bottles, with most made in China. The rapid growth in Asian debris, mainly from China, coupled with the recent manufacture of these items, indicates that ships are responsible for most of the bottles floating in the central South Atlantic Ocean, in contravention of International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships regulations.

House mice (Mus musculus L.) were introduced to sub-Antarctic Marion Island more than two centuries ago, and have been the only introduced mammal on the island since 1991 when feral cats were eradicated. The first mouse-injured wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans L.) chick was found in 2003 and since then attacks have continued at a low level affecting < 1% of the population. In 2009, the first 'scalpings' were detected; sooty albatross (Phoebetria fusca Hilsenberg) fledglings were found with raw wounds on the nape. In 2015, mice attacked large chicks of all three albatross species that fledge in autumn: grey-headed (Thalassarche chrysostoma Forster) (at least 102 wounded chicks; 4.6% of fledglings), sooty (n = 45, 4.3%) and light-mantled albatross (P. palpebrata Forster) (n = 1, 4%). Filming at night confirmed that mice were responsible for wounds. Attacks started independently in small pockets all around the island's 70 km coastline, separated by distances hundreds of times greater than mouse home ranges. The widespread nature of mouse attacks in 2015 on large, well-feathered chicks is alarming and highlights not only Marion Island as a priority island for mouse eradication but also that mice alone may significantly affect threatened seabird species.