Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea: overview and simulation of winds and storm-induced waves

Soltanpour, Mohsen; Ranji, Zahra; Shibayama, Tomoya; Ghader, Sarmad

doi:10.1007/s11069-021-04702-z

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…A large number of factors (e.g., physics schemes, initial conditions) control the performance of the WRF model. A sensitivity analysis was performed for each TC in the baseline period (Soltanpour et al ., 2021), which shows that these sources change the TC track and intensities remarkably. For example, changing the microphysics shifts the track and reduces the intensification by 5% for cyclone Gonu.…”

Section: Limitations and The Way Forwardmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…The WRF model has been utilized to simulate the historical TCs of Gonu, Phet, and Ashobaa in the AS (Soltanpour et al ., 2021). A summary of the model computational domain and configuration are presented in Tables 4 and 5.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using the PGW approach, future projection of TCs, in two time slices of near future, that is, 2025–2045, and the far future, that is, 2080–2100 was then investigated. To this end, the three TCs of Gonu, Phet, and Ashobaa, which were previously reproduced in the baseline period (Soltanpour et al ., 2021) were discussed. We also provide an uncertainty analysis, to address and quantify the sources that change PGW projection significantly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones of the Arabian Sea: Projections and uncertainty investigations

Ranji

Zarifsanayei

Cartwright

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study investigates some of the uncertainties sources associated with the pseudo global warming (PGW) approach which was employed to project future patterns of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Arabian Sea (AS). First, the climate variables controlling the patterns of tropical cyclones were extracted from reanalysis datasets of ERA5, ERAI, CFSR, and NCEP/NCAR. Then, each dataset was evaluated against long‐term measurements to identify the best‐performing reanalysis dataset. ERA5 showed the best performance for most of the variables. Outputs of 20 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) were then evaluated against the ERA5 data resulting in an ensemble of the best performing GCMs. A PGW framework was then used to project the changes in patterns of three significant historical cyclones: Gonu, Phet, and Ashobaa. In doing so, the signals of future climate variables were extracted from the GCMs ensemble to modify the initial and boundary conditions of the WRF model which was previously tuned for reproducing the historical TCs. Different tests were conducted to address the sources of uncertainty in the PGW approach, including the selection of the climate variables contributing to the computation of the signals, the selection of GCMs, and the spatial variation of signals. A considerable sensitivity of the projected track and intensity of TCs to the choice of GCMs was observed, acknowledging the importance of GCMs evaluation before calculating the signals. Moreover, it was found that among all variables, signals of sea surface temperature and air temperature have major effects on the cyclone's track and intensity. Apart from that, when the signals were applied to the domain of the WRF model uniformly, compared to applying spatially varying signals, different tracks and intensities for future TCs were also observed. Overall, the findings of this paper challenge the reliability of the projected changes in TCs patterns obtained from PGW.

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Section: Limitations and The Way Forwardmentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones of the Arabian Sea: Projections and uncertainty investigations

Ranji

Zarifsanayei

Cartwright

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

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“…Within the regular calendar year, there is a bimodal seasonal distribution of cyclones, forming most frequently between May–June and October–November (Figure 2). June is the most probable month for cyclone development (Soltanpour et al ., 2021). Positive vorticity in the NIO in June is stronger and extends northward (Fan et al ., 2020).…”

Section: Arabian Sea Cyclones: Seasonality and Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CycloneShaheen: the exceptional tropical cyclone of October 2021 in the Gulf of Oman

Terry

Ruheili

Boldi

et al. 2022

Weather

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Early October 2021 saw Cyclone Shaheen track westward across the far northern Arabian Sea, penetrate the Gulf of Oman and strike the northeast Oman coastline – the first storm to make such a unique landfall in more than 130 years. This paper describes how the unusual cyclogenesis location, favourable initial trajectory and steering, conducive environmental conditions and anomalously warm sea‐surface temperatures were the main influences responsible for Shaheen's extraordinary genesis, intensification and remarkable geographical landfall.

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“…The majority of NIO research is focused on BoB TCs, which are known for their cyclone activity and damage to the Indian coast. In comparison to AS, TCs are approximately four to five times more abundant in BoB (Bhardwaj et al 2019) approximately 10%-20% with a mean frequency of 1.33TCs each year (Soltanpour et al 2021). Following the history of AS TCs, the first cyclone to make landfall on the Somalia coast was a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) in AS in 1994.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent trends in tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea and the vulnerability of India’s west coast

Thomas

Lekshmy

2022

Arab J Geosci

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The IPCC's sixth assessment report emphasizes the increase in the frequency of stronger Tropical Cyclones (TC, category 3-5) over the last four decades. The Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) exhibits identical trends.The Arabian Sea (AS) has become a breeding ground for TCs that have wreaked havoc on Oman, UAE, Iran, Muscat, and India's west coast in recent years. The west coast of India is extremely vulnerable to TCs due to its unique coastal topography and population density. Most of the research on the North Indian Ocean is focused on Bay of Bengal (BoB) TCs, which necessitates rigorous studies in AS. The focus of this study is to improve our understanding of TC activity over AS by analysing the frequency of TCs and explaining observed higher intensity TCs in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Power Dissipative Index (PDI) over the last 39 years.Energy metric analysis confirms the increasing intensity of TCs in AS.Annual ACE and PDI have been increasing in recent years primarily due to monsoon and post-monsoon TCs. While pre-monsoon TCs show a decreasing trend. The effect of El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on TCs in AS is found to be negligible. The study also attempts to ascertain the vulnerability of western coastal districts to TCs using housing damage risk

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Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea: overview and simulation of winds and storm-induced waves

Cited by 14 publications

References 40 publications

Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones of the Arabian Sea: Projections and uncertainty investigations

Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones of the Arabian Sea: Projections and uncertainty investigations

CycloneShaheen: the exceptional tropical cyclone of October 2021 in the Gulf of Oman

Recent trends in tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea and the vulnerability of India’s west coast

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