CycloneShaheen: the exceptional tropical cyclone of October 2021 in the Gulf of Oman

Abstract

Early October 2021 saw Cyclone Shaheen track westward across the far northern Arabian Sea, penetrate the Gulf of Oman and strike the northeast Oman coastline – the first storm to make such a unique landfall in more than 130 years. This paper describes how the unusual cyclogenesis location, favourable initial trajectory and steering, conducive environmental conditions and anomalously warm sea‐surface temperatures were the main influences responsible for Shaheen's extraordinary genesis, intensification and remarkable geographical landfall.

Key Factors Modulating the Threat of the Arabian Sea's Tropical Cyclones to the Gulf Countries

“…Once over the Sea of Oman, the storm turned southwestwards, dissipating as it moved inland (Figure 1a). TC Shaheen wreaked havoc in the country, with torrential rainfall, 60 kt (∼31 m s −1 ) winds and 12‐m waves, leaving at least 11 people dead and leading to losses of more than 80 million USD (Al Shaibany, 2021; Terry et al., 2022). As discussed in IMD (2021b), both the trajectory and intensity of TC Shaheen were well simulated by IMD's operational model, with an error in the landfall site of 5.5 km 60 hr before the storm made landfall, and a discrepancy in the wind speed of 2.4 km (∼1.2 m s −1 ) for a forecast lead time of 72 hr, both roughly an order of magnitude smaller than the 2016–2020 average errors.…”

“…While TCs are regularly seen in the Arabian Sea, it is rare for them to move into the Sea of Oman, a small body of water that borders Oman, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran and western Pakistan. Only two such occurrences have been reported since 1900 (Mahmoud, 2021): TC Gonu in 2007 which, as of 2021, is the strongest TC on record in the Arabian Sea (e.g., Dibajnia et al., 2010; Najar & Salvekar, 2010), and TC Shaheen in October 2021 (Terry et al., 2022). Before 1900, there were two storms in the 1890s that propagated into the Sea of Oman: a destructive TC in early June 1890 whose trajectory resembles that of TC Shaheen, which dropped 286 mm of rain in Muscat in a 24‐hr period and led to death of at least 757 people (Membery, 2002), and a storm in early June 1898 that dissipated in the Sea of Oman (Knapp et al., 2010).…”

“…on record in the Arabian Sea (e.g., Dibajnia et al, 2010;Najar & Salvekar, 2010), and TC Shaheen in October 2021 (Terry et al, 2022). Before 1900, there were two storms in the 1890s that propagated into the Sea of Oman: a destructive TC in early June 1890 whose trajectory resembles that of TC Shaheen, which dropped 286 mm of rain in Muscat in a 24-hr period and led to death of at least 757 people (Membery, 2002), and a storm in early June 1898 that dissipated in the Sea of Oman (Knapp et al, 2010).…”

The Impact of the 2021 Cyclone Shaheen on the Mental Health of Affected Omanis

“…The most recent flood took place in October 2021 when cyclone Shaheen hit the north of Oman claiming the lives of at least 14 people. 13 The floods caused by Shaheen damaged highways and roads, cars, and buildings causing around US $100 million of damage. 10 , 13 The damage generated was mostly observed in Al Musannah, As Suwaiq, 10 Al Khabourah, and Saham.…”

“… 13 The floods caused by Shaheen damaged highways and roads, cars, and buildings causing around US $100 million of damage. 10 , 13 The damage generated was mostly observed in Al Musannah, As Suwaiq, 10 Al Khabourah, and Saham. 14 We postulate that residents of these states living this traumatic event could be the most affected physically and mentally and this warrants further research.…”