Trends in rainfall and temperature in the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin over the last 40 years (1965–2007)

Lavado‐Casimiro, Waldo; Labat, David; Ronchail, Josyane; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Guyot, Jean‐Loup

doi:10.1002/hyp.9418

Cited by 97 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 48 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Follow-up studies by Vuille et al (2003Vuille et al ( , 2008a) documented a warming of roughly 0.1°C per decade since the 1950s, when averaged over the entire tropical Andes south of the equator. These results are consistent with more regional temperature trend analyses performed later by Racoviteanu et al (2008), Poveda and Pineda (2009), Bradley et al (2009), Gilbert et al (2010), Lavado Casimiro et al (2013, Salzmann et al (2013), Seiler et al (2013a) and Lopez-Moreno et al (2014, 2016 in various locations of the Andes. More recently Schauwecker et al (2014) and Vuille et al (2015) analyzed the apparent slowdown of the warming, which may have been linked with the cooling observed over the eastern tropical Pacific and the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) since the early 2000s.…”

Section: Current State Of Glaciers and Climate Change In The Tropicalsupporting

confidence: 89%

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Vuille

Carey

Huggel

et al. 2018

Earth-Science Reviews

251

213

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Glaciers in the tropical Andes have been retreating for the past several decades, leading to a temporary increase in dry season water supply downstream. Projected future glacier shrinkage, however, will lead to a long-term reduction in dry season river discharge from glacierized catchments. This glacier retreat is closely related to the observed increase in high-elevation, surface air temperature in the region. Future projections using a simple freezing level height-equilibrium-line altitude scaling approach suggest that glaciers in the inner tropics, such as Antizana in Ecuador, may be most vulnerable to future warming while glaciers in the more arid outer tropics, such as Zongo in Bolivia, may persist, albeit in a smaller size, throughout the 21st century regardless of emission scenario. Nonetheless many uncertainties persist, most notably problems with accurate snowfall measurements in the glacier accumulation zone, uncertainties in establishing accurate thickness measurements on glaciers, unknown future changes associated with local-scale circulation and cloud cover affecting glacier energy balance, the role of aerosols and in particular black carbon deposition on Andean glaciers, and the role of groundwater and aquifers interacting with glacier meltwater.The reduction in water supply for export-oriented agriculture, mining, hydropower production and human consumption are the most commonly discussed concerns associated with glacier retreat, but many other aspects including glacial hazards, tourism and recreation, and ecosystem integrity are also affected by glacier retreat. Social and political problems surrounding water allocation for subsistence farming have led to conflicts due to lack of adequate water governance. Local water management practices in many regions reflect cultural belief systems, perceptions and spiritual values and glacier retreat in some places is seen as a threat to these local livelihoods.Comprehensive adaptation strategies, if they are to be successful, therefore need to consider science, policy, culture and practice, and involve local populations. Planning needs to be based not only on future scenarios derived from physically-based numerical models, but must also consider societal needs, economic agendas, political conflicts, socioeconomic inequality and cultural values. This review elaborates on the need for adaptation as well as the challenges and constraints many adaptation projects are faced with, and lays out future directions where opportunities exist to develop successful, culturally acceptable and sustainable adaptation strategies.

show abstract

Section: Current State Of Glaciers and Climate Change In The Tropicalsupporting

confidence: 89%

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Vuille

Carey

Huggel

et al. 2018

Earth-Science Reviews

251

213

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In Peru, the enhanced coastal and reduced Andean/ Amazonian rainfall are associated with surface warming in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, respectively, which can both occur, with varying relative magnitudes, during El Niño or (with approximately the opposite sign) during La Niña (Lagos et al, 2008;Lavado et al, 2013;Rau et al, 2017). We should note that the Atlantic SST variability also plays a key role in modulating the South American climate such as over the Amazon region on several timescales (Espinoza et al, 2011;Marengo and Espinoza, 2016;Jiménez-Muñoz et al, 2016).…”

mentioning

confidence: 90%

Impacts of different ENSO flavors and tropical Pacific convection variability (ITCZ, SPCZ) on austral summer rainfall in South America, with a focus on Peru

Sulca

Takahashi

Espinoza

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

132

128

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

El Niño in the eastern and central Pacific has different impacts on the rainfall of South America, and the atmospheric pathways through the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are poorly understood. To address this, we performed linear regression analysis of E (eastern Pacific) and C (central Pacific) indices of sea surface temperature (SST), as well as precipitation indices for the SPCZ and ITCZ, with gridded precipitation and reanalysis data sets during the austral summer (December-February) for the 1980-2016 period. Positive C induces dry anomalies along the tropical Andes and northern South America (NSA), while wet anomalies prevail over southeastern South America (SESA). Moreover, it produces wet conditions in the northwestern Peruvian Amazon. In contrast, positive E enhances wet conditions along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru associated with the southward displacement of the eastern Pacific ITCZ and induces dry conditions in Altiplano, Amazon basin, and northeastern Brazil (NEB). Both El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices are associated with weakened upper-level easterly flow over Peru, but it is more restricted to the central and southern Peruvian Andes with positive E. Both SPCZ indices, the zonal position of the SPCZ and its latitudinal displacement, suppress rainfall along western Peruvian Andes when are positive, but the latter also inhibits rainfall over the Bolivian Altiplano. They are also linked to upper-level westerly wind anomalies overall of Peru, but these anomalies do not extend as far south in the first. The southward displacement of the eastern Pacific ITCZ also induces wet anomalies in SESA while dry anomalies prevail over NEB, the western Amazon basin, and Bolivia. Oppositely, the southward displacement of the central Pacific ITCZ induces dry anomalies in NEB and along the northern coast of Peru; while wet anomalies occur mainly in eastern Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia through an enhancement of the low level jet.

show abstract

“…El comportamiento de la precipitación en la PSE resulta similar al encontrado en otras zonas de la costa Pacífica Sudamericana, y a pesar de la amplia variabilidad en los resultados de tendencias reportados, con valores de evolución intraanual positivos y negativos [12][13][14], se detectan tendencias regionales de carácter positivo en zonas más próximas a las regiones tropicales y tendencias de tipo negativo en zonas más alejadas de los trópicos [5,8].…”

Section: Caracterización Climática Históricaunclassified

“…En la costa pacífica de Sudamérica se han desarrollado algunos estudios que analizan la evolución de la temperatura [3][4][5][6][7] y la precipitación [5,[8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] y que han permitido crear una línea base de información para analizar las características del clima actual y su futura evolución. En este sentido, aunque para la temperatura los trabajos detectaron tendencias positivas similares a los encontrados a nivel mundial, son de destacar los valores de negativos de la costa Chilena [3,6].…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Evolución climática en la costa de Ecuador por efecto del cambio climático

García-Garizábal

Romero-Crespo

Jiménez

et al. 2017

DYNA

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The study presented herein characterizes climate for historical series of average temperature and precipitation, also including future projections for the Province of Santa Elena, westernmost point of continental Ecuador, which presents desert environment in the intertropical belt. The historical analysis shows increasing temperatures (0,038 ºC/year) and precipitation (0,196 mm/year). Comparison of historical and generated (65 climate models) climate determines scenario ECHOG A2 as the most appropriate to reproduce the climate of the zone. This model predicts increases in temperature (+2,7 ºC), precipitation (+8,2%), and in maximum annual rain values, at the end of the XXI century. Evolution of temperature and precipitation does not lead to changes in annual climate characteristics, which is maintained as Semiarid, but the aridity index decreases monthly, from January to April.Keywords: Temperature, precipitation; aridity index; climate models; trend. Evolución climática en la costa de Ecuador por efecto del cambio climáticoResumen Este trabajo caracteriza el clima de la serie histórica de temperatura media y precipitación y sus proyecciones futuras (2012-2099) en la Provincia de Santa Elena, región más occidental del Ecuador continental con características desérticas en el cinturón intertropical. El análisis histórico muestra aumentos de temperatura (0,038 ºC/año) y precipitación (0,196 mm/año). La comparación del clima histórico y generado por 65 modelos climáticos determina al escenario ECHOG A2 como más adecuado para reproducir el clima de la zona. Dicho modelo predice a final del siglo XXI aumentos en la temperatura media (+2,7 ºC), precipitación (+8,2%) y en los valores máximos de lluvia anual. La evolución de la temperatura y precipitación no lleva cambios en las características de clima anual que se mantiene como Semidesértico árido, si bien mensualmente disminuye la aridez de enero a abril.Palabras clave: Temperatura; precipitación; índice de aridez; modelos climáticos; tendencia. IntroducciónEl grupo intergubernamental de expertos sobre el cambio climático (IPCC) pone de manifiesto que el calentamiento global debido a la emisión de gases de efecto invernadero es un hecho constatado con el que se prevén importantes cambios en gran cantidad de variables climáticas [1]. Entre ellas, destacan precisamente la temperatura, en la que se detecta una tendencia creciente de 0,74 ºC entre 1901-2005, y las precipitaciones, en las que a pesar de su alta variabilidad espacial puede evidenciarse un aumento generalizado en regiones septentrionales y una reducción en las más How to cite: García-Garizábal, I., Romero, P., Jimenez, S. and Jordá, L., Evolución climática en la costa de Ecuador por efecto del cambio climático DYNA, 84(203), pp. 37-44, December, 2017. meridionales.El IPCC recoge la necesidad de establecer medidas de adaptación y mitigación de cara al cambio climático, si bien, dada la complejidad del sistema Tierra, es imposible detallar actuaciones a nivel mundial y resulta necesario desarrol...

show abstract

Trends in rainfall and temperature in the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin over the last 40 years (1965–2007)

Abstract: International audienc

Cited by 97 publications

References 48 publications

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Impacts of different ENSO flavors and tropical Pacific convection variability (ITCZ, SPCZ) on austral summer rainfall in South America, with a focus on Peru

Evolución climática en la costa de Ecuador por efecto del cambio climático

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About