Trends in old-age mortality in seven European countries, 1950–1999

Janssen, Fanny; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kunst, Anton E.; NEDCOM, for

doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2003.07.005

Cited by 52 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 31 publications

(44 reference statements)

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“…Accumulated evidence shows that men enjoyed greater gains in life expectancy during the last quarter of the twentieth century than did in women. Mortality from acute heart disease is sharply decreasing, and this fall in mortality is more marked in men than in women, suggesting that male survivors are at risk of disability and dependency at all ages (Janssen et al 2004). We therefore expect converging DFLE trends for men and women in all countries as male life expectancy continues to rise and disability among survivors of acute heart disease increases.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disability-free life expectancy: a cross-national comparison of six longitudinal studies on aging. The CLESA project

Minicuci¹,

Noale²,

Pluijm

et al. 2004

Eur J Ageing

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Disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) was compared in six countries taking part in the Crossnational Determinants of Quality of Life and Health Services for the Elderly (CLESA) project. Data from six existing longitudinal studies were used: TamELSA (Tampere, Finland), CALAS (Israel), ILSA (Italy), LASA (The Netherlands), Aging in Legane´s (Legane´s, Spain) and SATSA (Sweden). A harmonised four-item disability measure (bathing, dressing, transferring, toileting) was used to calculate DFLE; the harmonised measure was dichotomised into 'independent in all four activities' vs. 'dependent in at least one'. Calculations of DFLE were made using the multistate life table approach and the IMaCh program (INED/EuroRE-VES, http://eurorevesinedfr/imach/) for subjects aged 65-89 years. Prevalence ratios of disability varied significantly across countries, with Italy and Legane´s having the highest percentages among men and among women, respectively, while The Netherlands presented the lowest for both sexes. At 75 years of age the estimated total life expectancy among men ranged from 7.8 years in Tampere and Sweden to 9.0 years in Israel; among women it ranged from 9.5 years in Israel to 11.6 years in Italy. For both sexes Italy showed the lowest total life expectancy without disability (72% among men, 61% among women) and Sweden the highest (89% among men and 71% among women). The results yielded a north/south gradient, with residents in Tampere, The Netherlands and Sweden expected to spend a higher percentage of their lives without disability than those in Italy, Israel and Legane´s.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disability-free life expectancy: a cross-national comparison of six longitudinal studies on aging. The CLESA project

Minicuci¹,

Noale²,

Pluijm

et al. 2004

Eur J Ageing

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“…Because the study period included different revisions of the World Health Organization ICD, we adjusted for effects of coding changes using a regression-based method that is reported elsewhere. 12 To describe trends in stroke mortality between 1980 and 2005, sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates were calculated using direct standardization. As the standard population, we took the total EU25 (the European Union comprising 25 member states) population by 5-year age groups in 2005 as the standard population (http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Decline in Stroke Mortality

Kunst

Amiri

Janssen

2011

Stroke

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“…There is ample empirical evidence that there has been a converging tendency in mortality declines during the last decades (Wilson, 2001;White, 2002;Janssen et al, 2004;Bongaarts, 2006;Lanzieri, 2009). Life expectancy has increased more strongly in countries that had relatively low life expectancies.…”

Section: Convergence Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS

Beer¹

2012

DemRes

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BACKGROUNDTOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent. OBJECTIVEThis article demonstrates how TOPALS can be used for both smoothing and projecting age-specific mortality for 26 European countries and compares the results of TOPALS with those of other smoothing and projection methods. METHODSTOPALS uses a linear spline to describe the ratios between the age-specific death probabilities of a given country and a standard age schedule. For smoothing purposes I use the average of death probabilities over 15 Western European countries as standard, whereas for projection purposes I use an age schedule of 'best practice' mortality. A partial adjustment model projects how quickly the death probabilities move in the direction of the best-practice level of mortality. RESULTSOn average, TOPALS performs better than the Heligman-Pollard model and the Brass relational method in smoothing mortality age schedules. TOPALS can produce projections that are similar to those of the Lee-Carter method, but can easily be used to produce alternative scenarios as well. This article presents three projections of life expectancy at birth for the year 2060 for 26 European countries. The Baseline scenario assumes a continuation of the past trend in each country, the Convergence scenario assumes that there is a common trend across European countries, and the Acceleration scenario assumes that the future decline of death probabilities will exceed that in the past. The Baseline scenario projects that average European life expectancy at birth will 1 Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute. E-mail: beer@nidi.nl.de Beer: Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS 544http://www.demographic-research.org increase to 80 years for men and 87 years for women in 2060, whereas the Acceleration scenario projects an increase to 90 and 93 years respectively. CONCLUSIONSTOPALS is a useful new tool for demographers for both smoothing age schedules and making scenarios.

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Trends in old-age mortality in seven European countries, 1950–1999

Cited by 52 publications

References 31 publications

Disability-free life expectancy: a cross-national comparison of six longitudinal studies on aging. The CLESA project

Disability-free life expectancy: a cross-national comparison of six longitudinal studies on aging. The CLESA project

The Decline in Stroke Mortality

Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS

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